Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.
Interestingly, other delegates, both presenting and/or participating were asked what outlook they expected for the Gold price 3 years into the future. Most replied within a hundred dollars from the current level of US$1300.00 whilst one took aim at US$1500.00 – but the overall sentiment remained bearish, with the main subjects of supply/demand and financing painting a very sombre picture.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, and certainly from a contrarian standpoint, this type of reaction from industry experts is the ‘norm’ at this particular juncture in gold and silver’s 3 year decline from the 2011 highs.
I presented WaveTrack International’s ‘INFLATION-POP’ theme where gold first declines towards US$1096.00+/- into July/August, max. September this year (2014), but then changes direction to begin another surge into record highs. Rather than shocking the delegates, especially since most seemed apathetic beforehand when asked about their own expectations, a resounding interest in the possibility began to emerge – I interpreted this as a positive reaction!
The presentation included the ‘inflation-pop’ outlook for Silver and Platinum, but also how this translates into some amazing forecasts for the GDX Gold Miners ETF and the XAU Gold/Silver index – but the key that unlocks the debate on whether the commodity super-cycle has ended or not is revealed in the Elliott Wave pattern of one of the major equities – Newmont Mining Corp.
One of the aspects that I attempt to practice whilst publishing our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) analysis is to avoid ‘sensationalising’ a forecast for publicity – if you’re already familiar with WaveTrack International’s work of the past, you’ll know this to be true – but it’s easy to interpret the analysis in this way simply because of the ‘returns’ that are possible in these forecasts. Despite this however, I hope you find them within your ‘comfort-zone’ because if they’re not, then you can’t benefit from them.
The gold chart shown below depicts the last three phases of the larger super-cycle uptrend that began from the Great Depression lows of 1932 when prices formed a low at US$17.06 per ounce. The current all-time-high ending into the Aug.’11 (orthodox) high at 1912.70 (actual high in Sep.’11 at 1921.50) completed cycle wave 3 of super-cycle wave V with cycle wave 4 since in decline as a double-three pattern, expanding flat-x-zig zag. Ultimate downside targets measure towards the US$1096.00+/- level, simultaneously beginning cycle wave 5’s advance to new record high. It’s only when this Elliott Wave pattern is compared to the equivalent developments of silver, platinum, GDX, XAU and especially the big equity miners such as Newmont Mining Corp. that the bullish implications of the ‘INFLATION-POP’ theme can be truly understood.
The Bloomberg presentation is gaining interest from the media with two articles already highlighting the important implications of the upcoming PRECIOUS METALS PRICE-SURGE –
It’s not only PRECIOUS METALS that are set to trade into record highs within the ‘inflation-pop’ theme – most BASE METALS and certainly the two main ENERGY contracts, CRUDE OIL and BRENT OIL are also expected to surge to new record highs during the next 18-24 month period. These markets are updated in our EW-Forecast database, in WaveTrack International’s monthly EW-NAVIGATOR reports and videos.
### - The full presentation ‘The Inflation-Pop – Precious Metals set to Surge into Record Highs’ – Elliott Wave & Cycle Analysis is available for our institutional and private clients/subscribers – if you’re a buy-side Investment Bank, Pension Fund, Total/Absolute-Return/Hedge Fund, Sovereign Wealth Fund, a Corporate or a Market-Making/Trading institution, please contact us for details of our Institutional EW-Forecast services, services@wavetrack.com or see here:
Alternatively, if you are a private investor, please view our subscription details for the EW-Compass report here: