ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
20th December 2025 - Maybe Santa Claus didn’t forget to deliver presents to the stock market after all? – Thursday’s lows have been overturned with rallies through today’s session too. Ambiguous patterns in preceding### declines from last week’s highs despite perfect timing and price levels have shown overlapping sequences which could be impulse or corrective – the cash Nasdaq 100 shows a clearer five wave downswing but that’s all. And yet, those late-November rallies in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ending into such perfect overhead resistance last week can’t be ignored. One thing’s for certain – if illiquidity across the holiday season and new year causes a break higher, we wouldn’t expect this to be sustained. Some of the MAG-7 equities are still some way off completing downward corrections that began either from August/November highs, like Meta and Amazon and even Nvidia which retains downside targets of 152.60+/-. Broadcom’s $100 dollar decline following its quarterly earnings results is just the beginning of a larger downward correction. Some short-term pattern discrepancies are visible comparing the S&P 500… Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
20th December 2025 - Seems like nobody believes in the low U.S. CPI inflation print that came through Thursday. November’s data showed CPI running at 0.2% but with a hefty drop in the annualised figure at 2.7%### from expectations of 3.1% and the core at 2.6% versus 3.0% - it’s interesting to see how the markets reacted – the US$ dollar initially declined but reversed higher, shrugging off the consequences of low inflation – this was another indication following the previous week’s Fed rate cut that the dollar has legs to the upside. Whilst the US$ dollar index holds above this week’s low of 97.87, there’s a heightened probability it will push higher now, towards 102.95+/-. Equally, the Euro/US$ has been unable to break above nearby overhead resistance at 1.1804 even though the ECB held rates unchanged with an accompanying bullish statement on the economy – the outlook remains to the downside as does ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
20th December 2025 - Seems like nobody believes in the low U.S. CPI inflation print that came through Thursday. November’s data showed CPI running at 0.2% but with a hefty drop in the annualised figure at 2.7%### from expectations of 3.1% and the core at 2.6% versus 3.0%. Because the October CPI was cancelled, Thursday’s report did not have all the usual data points of a typical CPI release - the BLS said it was unable to retroactively collect the October data, but did use some ‘non-survey data sources’ to make the index calculations. The US10yr yield’s count #1 outlook maintains a modest upswing towards resistance at 4.340+/- before resuming its intermediate wave (3) downtrend – count #2 shown in Wednesday’s report otherwise allows a reattempt back to May’s high of 4.627+/- before finishing wave (2) as a flat pattern. The European Cent¬ral Bank confirmed its unchanged interest rate decision during Thursday’s session leaving the deposit rate at 2.00% per cent whilst upgrading some of its growth and inflation projections. The DE10yr yield is testing...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
20th December 2025 - Silver is fast approaching upside targets for the completion of intermediate wave (3)’s advance that began from last April’s low of 28.37 towards max. 68.93+/-. With gold still trading### around last October’s intermediate wave (3) high of 4381.37 at 4339.94 today, there’s an obvious case to conclude that silver’s outperformance over the last six weeks has happened as a consequence to re-align both patterns to their corresponding wave (3) peaks. That has consequences to the downside too because it translates into big corrective declines for gold and silver ahead. These have exhibited positive-correlation to other risk-on assets like stock indices – if gold and silver are about to top-out and head lower, perhaps this is also indicative for stock indices too? Special circumstances may be in play for...Read full summary in our latest report!
