ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
22nd November 2025 - Some important short-term developments have occurred. Thursday’s sharp sell-off has completed five wave impulse declines in the Dow Jones and Europe’s Eurostoxx 50 and perhaps even the ###Russell 2000 from their respective October/November highs. This explains how Thursday’s bearish sentiment has quickly transitioned with gains through today’s (Friday’s) session, beginning counter-trend rallies that are expected to continue higher next week. That provides some relief for the bulls following Nvidia’s excellent quarterly earnings and guidance released late Wednesday although the equity quickly sold off post-data gains with a $23 dollar decline into today’s low. The five wave impulse declines in the indices provides some short-term upside relief too although they also confirm downside continuity... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
22nd November 2025 - Scanning across the G10 currencies, the US$/CAD is showing a clearer short-term picture of US$ dollar declines because of its initial five wave decline between 1.4140-1.3983 – a corrective rally### that has rejected below 1.4140 today heightens the probability of another five wave decline to complete a deeper zig zag correction that pulls the US$ dollar index lower too, as minute wave 2 towards 98.15+/- during the next couple of weeks. The larger picture maintains unchanged with minor wave c. heading into a five wave pattern targeting 1.0295+/- as the completion of intermediate wave (2)’s expanding flat. Likewise, but inversely, the Euro/US$ is expected to lift higher during the next couple of weeks to complete a comparable 2nd wave correction towards 1.1728+/- ahead of resuming lower. Stlg/US$ is... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
22nd November 2025 - Economic data is still trickling through with today’s U.S. PMI Composite flash for November coming through at a healthy 54.8 although the manufacturing component was down to 51.9 from 52.2. Traders### view the lack of economic data as potentially justifying a Federal Reserve interest rate pause, with Fed funds futures pricing a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, down from a 50% chance a day earlier. The US10yr yield is currently working its way higher from October’s low of 3.934 as a counter-trend correction towards targets of 4.340+/- which is ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
22nd November 2025 - Gold has declined into a five wave impulse pattern from November’s secondary high of 4245.04 to 3998.24 and is labelled as a 1st wave within minor wave c.’s developing impulse – a 2nd wave rally is### now expected higher during the next week or two, towards 4159.20+/- ahead of downside 3rd wave acceleration in December. Silver has similarly declined from this month’s secondary high of 54.39 to 49.36 as a 1st...Read full summary in our latest report!
