ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
18th July 2026 - U.S. stock indices turned down this week as investors began questioning the huge capex expenditure of mega-cap hyperscalers and others within the semiconductor industry that are pouring into AI### development. Several U.S. banks published their latest quarterly returns with mixed results – Elliott Wave analysis has identified a zig zag upswing completing from the March 19th low of 146.25 into this week’s high of 192.86 which is labelled as wave (b) of a developing expanding flat pattern – wave (c) now has downside targets towards 135.75+/- during the next months – that’s an expected decline of almost -30% per cent! Meanwhile, TSMC, a bellwether for AI chip demand, posted a 77% jump in second-quarter profit to a record high of T$706.6 billion ($22 billion) announcing a capex expenditure increase of 14% - the share price traded lower however, leaving behind an important high of 479.00 traded late-June with... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
18th July 2026 - The short-term picture for the US$ dollar and the other G7 currency pairs is a little clouded right now. It’s not clear whether the dollar is still engaged in its 3rd wave advance within January’s### five wave diagonal, or if that has already completed and is turning down to begin a 4th wave correction. The same dilemma is also seen for the Euro/US$ and Stlg/US$ - on balance, we’ve seen the scales tilt a little towards an upside expectation next week for some renewed US$ dollar strength because of Stlg/US$’s unique position within its corresponding but inversely declining five wave diagonal pattern unfolding from January’s high – but again, it’s not clear although today’s lack of upside momentum for Stlg/US$ and its retreat lower does offer some clues about that short-term dollar strength idea for next week. Analysis...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
18th July 2026 - On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she thinks benchmark U.S. interest rates should be ‘modestly higher’ to address the inflation problem. Similarly, Cleveland Fed### President Beth Hammack on Friday also suggested that policy needs to be tighter saying ‘for the first time in my tenure, I’m hearing from businesses who say they think we need to take action to curb inflation, and from consumers who can’t make ends meet about a growing sense of despair’. That helped the US10yr yield to recover higher from an earlier decline during the session to 4.510 to 4.554 on a weaker industrial production number although the real story was this last week’s reversal-signature decline from predetermined upside targets of 4.642+/- to an actual high of 4.635 ahead of the weak CPI inflation data that subsequently pulled yields ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
18th July 2026 - Possibility gold found short-term support today at 3959.96 whilst completing a double zig zag pattern from the July 6th high of 4202.65 – this would suggest gold is now heading back higher for a retest### of 4202.65+/-. It’s a similar short-term picture for silver – it found short-term support today at 54.77 whilst completing a double zig zag pattern from the July 6th high of 63.27 – this would suggest silver is now heading back higher for a retest and a modest break above 63.27 to max. 64.00+/-. The larger picture for both shows intermediate wave (4)’s correction from January highs remain incomplete – we’re expecting lower prices in August, maybe September... Read full summary in our latest report!
