ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
18th December 2025 - Our annual trilogy reports season has begun with the compilation of over 120 charts for Part I Stock ###Indices – we’re putting the final analysis together over the next several days and intend publishing before year-end with the usual accompanying video. The report breaks down into several medium and long-term sections – U.S., Europe and the World but there’s a huge section also devoted to AI stocks along with several semiconductors – we call this the AI Roadmap for 2026 – if you want to know what’s ahead, how the final stages of the secular-bull market is unfolding into a final blow-off peak due before the end of the current decade, then we invite you to take a look – we’ll be sending out emails when its ready! Today’s shorter-term outlooks remains with the same theme – continuing a downward correction ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
18th December 2025 - The US$ dollar clung onto nearby support following a slight overreach of downside targets but has since responded higher despite weaker non-farm-payroll numbers announced Tuesday. Whilst ###Tuesday’s support at 97.87 holds, there remains a heightened probability the dollar can now push strongly higher for the next few months, maintaining original forecasts towards 102.95+/-. Inversely, the Euro/US$ found overhead resistance at 1.1804 completing a 2nd wave rally from November’s low of 1.1469 and is now resuming lower. Stlg/US$ reached optimum upside targets to complete its 4th wave rally from November’s low of 1.3010 and is also resuming lower now. US$/Yen remains... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
18th December 2025 - Tuesday’s November U.S. non-farm-payrolls came through at 64k, higher than consensus estimates of 40k although they slumped in updates for October to -105k whilst the unemployment rate notched ###higher from 4.5% to 4.6%. With the labour market cooling down, expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for next year have been heightened slightly. Last week’s dovish call from the Fed combined with weaker labour data would suggest declines for the US10yr yield. But today’s report updates a rather sticky alternate count that allows for a revisit back to the May high of 4.627%. The European Cent¬ral Bank meet tomorrow for their final decision of the year on interest rates and policy. No change is expected with the deposit rate holding at 2.00% per cent although council member Isabel Schnabel has openly endorsed the ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
18th December 2025 - Gold is holding below October’s high of 4381.37 maintaining last week’s analysis for a more immediate upside completion of minor wave b.’s rally from the late-October low of 3886.62. But today’s ###analysis allows for a break higher, although max. towards 4507.00+/- changing intermediate wave (4)’s downward correction from a zig zag into an expanding flat. Silver has continued higher this week and is now on a trajectory to finish the entirety of intermediate wave (3)’s impulse advance from April’s low of 28.37. Upside targets remain towards 68.17+/- max. 68.93+/-. Once completed, both gold and silver can turn lower in meaningful corrections that can last several months. Crude oil has reached downside targets ... Read full summary in our latest report!
