ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
27th April 2024 - There were a few shocks coming from the latest batch of quarterly earnings results with Meta/Facebook’s equity price declining -15% per cent following its guidance over capex expenditure. After the New York markets closed Thursday, Alphabet/Google and Microsoft Corp. released their latest quarterly earnings results - ###Alphabet/Google shares jumped +14% per cent in after-hours trading as results showed revenue increased 15% from a year earlier, the fastest rate of growth since early 2022. Microsoft Corp. shares rose as much as 5% in extended trading after the software maker issued fiscal third-quarter results that out-paced Wall Street’s expectations. The net result was an extended counter-trend rally in the major indices, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 which is expected to continue higher next week. The latest U.S. PCE and Personal Income/Outlays inflation data is confirming the idea of higher interest rates for longer which is expected to cause a drag on equites going forward. But right now, bullish sentiment of the last several months remains high… Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
27th April 2024 - The US$ dollar index has pulled lower over the last week from a high of 106.51 but as a corrective zig zag pattern. This is the 4th wave within minute wave c’s impulse advance that began from March’s low of 102.36. Through Thursday’s U.S. core PCE inflation data which came in higher than expectations of 3.4% at 3.7%### and today’s Personal Income data which again had an uptick of 0.5% and 2.8% year-over-year eventually triggered the completion at 105.41 with a strong upside recovery late-session to 106.18, confirming upside progress as the concluding 5th wave targeting 106.69+/- max. 107.06+/-. This completes the entire a-b-c zig zag correction of minor wave ii. two that began from December’s low of 100.62. The Euro/US$ is expected to decline next week towards 1.0528+/- to complete December’s corrective…Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
27th April 2024 - Reporting Thursday, U.S. Gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualised pace, below the 2.4% estimate. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), a key inflation variable for the Federal Reserve, rose at a 3.4%### annualised pace for the quarter, its biggest gain in a year. Today’s Personal Income/Outlays and the PCE price index both showed sticky inflation trends with annualised price index at 2.7% and personal income at 2.8%, a notch above expectations. The US10yr yield has been trending higher all week as bond investors adjust to the notion that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates, if at all, until much later this year. The US10yr yield is approaching an important high towards 4.770+/- ahead of 120bps… Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
27th April 2024 - Gold is continuing to decline from the early-April high of 2430.77 as minor wave iv. four’s correction within intermediate wave (3)’s uptrend that began from the Oct.’23 low of 1810.60. Thursday’s PCE inflation numbers combined with today’s Personal Income/Outlays data has pushed gold higher into a short-term correction but### tonight’s late-session sell-off is confirming a downside test next week towards min. 2266.75+/- for the completion of minor wave iv. four. Silver’s corresponding corrective downswing as minor wave iv. four from April’s high of 29.80 is also set for one final decline next week before finishing the pattern towards 26.50+/- max. 26.30+/-. Watch for an inverse, corresponding peak in the US$ dollar index. The mid-April high of 87.67 completed the entirety of primary wave B’s corrective upswing that…Read full summary in our latest report!
