ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices
16th August 2025 - It took a while, but U.S. stock indices eventually turned down during today’s session, confirming August’s rallies had ended single/double zig zags finishing the b wave highs of more complex ###sideways, downward a-b-c flat corrections that began from July’s highs. That means wave c’s declines have begun which translates into a -4% decline during the next week, or about 268 points lower for the S&P 500 or about 1300 points lower for the Nasdaq 100. The Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 are also unfolding into a similar horizontal flat correction with wave c declines in progress, returning levels back to August’s lows. The larger picture remains bullish – once this next.. dow Read full summary in our latest report!

Currencies (FX)
16th August 2025 - Ahead of presidents Trump and Putin’s meeting in Alaska, the US$ dollar index hovers just above important nearby support at 97.43-20+/-. This is a big test in determining whether these levels### complete a zig zag downswing from the early-August high of 100.25 as the 2nd wave within an advancing five wave diagonal that began from July’s low or if it ultimately breaks below 96.37, extending January’s five wave decline as intermediate wave (1) towards 94.81+/-. There’s a good chance the dollar will find support around 97.43-20+/-…Read full summary in our latest report!

Bonds (Interest Rates)
16th August 2025 - Thursday’s U.S. wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy - the producer price index jumped 0.9% in July, ###compared with the estimate for a 0.2% gain - excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. That pushed the US10yr yield higher from a secondary pullback low of 4.195, critically, holding above last week’s low of 4.183 then trading up to 4.331 today. One consequence of the hot PPI print is that the market has given up on hopes of a jumbo 50bps basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. But traders are still pricing…Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities
16th August 2025 - Platinum may have already ended its five wave uptrend that began from April’s low of 892.75 at July’s high of 1481.00 although we’ve still got provision for this to extend higher, towards ###1557.00+/- max. 1594.00+/- (futures) but this will depend on prices holding above the early-August low of 1263.10. The gold/silver ratio has stalled in its five wave downtrend that began from April’s high of 107.12 trading down to July’s low of 85.80 but since rallying into a correction. Gold miners have pushed higher this month despite gold bullion remaining below April’s high – Barrick is approaching upside targets towards 24.80+/- trading tonight at 24.10 – should it reverse lower, it’ll confirm a multi-month…Read full summary in our latest report!