ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
2nd October 2025 - Investor veteran and chairman of the Omega Family Office Leon Cooperman said he believes the stock market is at a stage where bubbles can form saying ‘once a bull market gets under way, and ###once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake to be out of stocks’. The famous Buffett Indicator, the ratio of total U.S. stock market value to GDP is also flashing one of the clearest signs of market exuberance. Despite the warnings, Elliott Wave analysis suggests any correction will finish above last April’s lows instead of beginning a major collapse. Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
2nd October 2025 - The US$ dollar index hasn’t traded up from September’s low of 96.22 into a concise five wave pattern that would underscore a multi-month advance is underway although short-term introspection### does show a short-term downswing unfolding into a potential running flat pattern which would complete into today’s low, ahead of a resumption higher. If the dollar can now turn higher again, it’ll confirm further gains into year-end. Failure would otherwise play into extending another decline to lower-lows, towards max. 94.81+/-/ Our bias remains dollar bullish because of the extreme bearish dollar positioning at 20-year lows. The other currencies are all bearish against the backdrop of dollar bullish, but to proof that assumption... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
2nd October 2025 - The short-term picture of the US10yr yield has established an intra-hourly five wave impulse pattern within the recent advance from September’s low of 3.989 into the previous week’s high of ###4.196 – this maintains the idea that yields are heading higher for another month or so, returning back to May’s high of 4.627+/- to finish intermediate wave (2) as a flat ahead of significant declines ahead as wave (3). European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has pointed to room for further rate cuts in the Eurozone area, stressing that the position of policymakers is ‘not fixed’ even as investors have lowered their expectations for further easing over the coming months. Those comments have helped to maintain a lid on any gains in the DE10yr yield. Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
2nd October 2025 - Speculative fever reigns in gold and silver. In September’s Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, the most crowded trades are 1st, long Mag-7’s and 2nd, long gold, up to 25ppt from 12ppt in ###August – that’s an extreme echoed in the latest CFTC speculative net positioning which stands at 266.7k contracts, steadily rising since May, from 161.2k although it’s below the Sep.’24 peak of 315.4k. Silver’s CFTC net speculative positioning stands at 52.3k, historically high although below the June ’25 peak of 67.2k. Both gold and silver have risen more than expected at this specific stage of their uptrends although they’re still approaching important peaks. Crude oil has traded lower this week ... Read full summary in our latest report!
