ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
10th January 2026 - Stock indices have begun the year on a firmer footing although we’re still expecting a short-term correction to pull prices lower, by around -12% per cent although not before another +3% per cent ###advance finishes wave (b) of a developing (a)-(b)-(c) expanding flat correction that began from last October’s highs. The same expanding flat is unfolding in the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100. Recent sentiment data shows the put/call ratio in the S&P 500 at multi-year highs whilst Bank of America’s recent survey shows fund managers have cash allocation at record lows of 3.3% per cent, something not seen in over 20-years of data...Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
10th January 2026 - US$ dollar strength over the last couple of days trading from December’s low of 97.75 to today’s high of 99.26 has increased the probability of more immediate gains without any meaningful setback### with a clearer path higher. That said, shorter-term US$/CAD shows an intra-hourly advance finishing from end-December’s low into today’s high which would necessitate a short-term correction lower before resuming higher – that could pull the dollar index down towards 96.82+/- ahead of resuming higher. Whichever of these two short-term possibilities unfold, the larger picture for the next few months remains the same - the US$ dollar index is expected higher during the next few months. This is against general consensus from investment banks, although there’s one overriding factor behind dollar strength - upon cross-checking with other dollar currency pairs...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
10th January 2026 - Bond markets have been eagerly-awaiting the latest non-farm-payroll data in gaining insights into the U.S. labour market. Today’s data came through at 50,000, just slightly lower than consensus### estimates of 55k and whilst this wasn’t big news, it confirmed the softer downtrend in hiring that began from 2022’s peak of over 800k - the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, compared with the forecast for 4.5%. No change in forecasts for the US10yr yield – preferential count #1 depicts May’s high at 4.627 as beginning intermediate wave (3)’s downtrend whilst count #2 retains a lower probability of a return back to May’s high to finish wave (2). Eurozone retail sales ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
10th January 2026 - Gold remains below recent highs of 4550.06 maintaining a more immediate bearish count for further declines as part of intermediate wave (4)’s correction – but any break above 4550.06 however, will### simply prolong the upside completion of intermediate wave (3) towards next targets of 4691.25+/- or max. 5273.13+/-. Silver has continued higher over the last couple of days although remaining below the late-December high of 84.01 which is a candidate for finishing the entirety of last April’s impulse uptrend from 28.37...Read full summary in our latest report!
