ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
14th June 2025 - This week’s tariff negotiations between the U.S./China have suddenly been put on the back-burner as new geopolitical events take over. Israel has undertaken preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities whilst assassinating key military and scientific personal linked to uranium enrichment programmes. Iran has tonight begun retaliation strikes inside Israel as the region plunges into a war zone. Stock indices pulled sharply lower overnight although declines from Wednesday’s highs in the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have unfolded into Friday’s lows as proportional,### corrective zig zags – during the session, both indices recovered strongly higher, suggesting these preceding zig zag declines were in fact corrective, with higher-highs next week. If this can be interpreted into up-coming events, then perhaps it indicates some diplomacy will prevail, if only for a week or so, enabling today’s upside rallies to extend as the concluding sequence of larger 3rd wave uptrends in progress from April’s lows. The US$ dollar index attracted safe-haven buying today, and analysis … Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
14th June 2025 - Thursday’s US$ dollar index sell-off traded into downside targets of 97.35+/- to a low of 97.60 as the completion of May’s double zig zag pattern from 101.97. This downside attempt at targets came just hours ahead of news that Israel had undertaken preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities – that subsequently lifted the dollar### higher, unfolding into an intra-hourly five wave pattern, heightening the probability that Thursday’s low at 97.60 ended wave b of a developing running/expanding flat with wave c now heading higher for a few weeks, back towards that May high of 101.97+/- If so, then today’s safe-haven dollar buying is likely to continue, alluding to more Middle East conflict – but this is dependent on the dollar holding above today’s low. The Euro/US$ has completed its inverse wave b high from May’s low and now heading lower as wave c towards targets of 1.1066+/- whilst Stlg/US$ is set to decline…Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
14th June 2025 - Overnight news that Israel had undertaken preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities has pushed all safe-havens higher, including the US$ dollar, gold and bonds, including treasuries. It was rather short-lived however – the US10yr yield extended lower from Monday’s high of 4.517 to a low of 4.308 before rallying ###higher afterwards – there’s still a high probability that the yield can overturn geopolitics and stretch higher during the next few weeks as the positively-correlated dollar heads higher. That’s mirrored in the DE10yr yield – safe-haven bund buying pulled the yield down to a low of 2.421 but insodoing, ended a five wave diagonal from May’s high of 2.700 – a counter-trend rally.. Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
14th June 2025 - Overnight news that Israel has undertaken preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities has pushed all safe-havens higher, including gold – the precious metal is continuing to develop higher from May’s low of 3121.02 into a double zig zag pattern – upside targets measure back towards April’s high of 3500.00+/-. ###Should gold test this upside area, then reversing lower afterwards, it would heighten the probability of a multi-month decline ahead as the concluding sequence of intermediate wave (4)’s correction. Silver’s alternate count #2 is again updated today – curiously, it didn’t attract safe-haven buying today although approaching important upside resistance at min. 37.47+/- max. 37.76+/-. Should silver, like gold, simultaneously reverse lower afterwards, it’ll confirm a multi-month corrective downswing ahead. Crude oil spiked higher on the Israeli/Iran news…Read full summary in our latest report!
