ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
14th February 2026 - A bit of a roller-coaster ride this week in terms of economic data with Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected non-farm-payrolls combating against today’s (Friday’s) weaker CPI inflation### data. The biggest moves of the week appeared during Thursday’s sell-off in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 although prices found some measure of support Friday, with some response higher. This latest turn-around, heading back higher has occurred above the previous week’s lows and whilst above those lows, November’s three wave zig zag rallies remain on-track to reach modest higher-highs sometime during the next couple of weeks before turning lower to begin declines of around -12% to -16% per cent. The Dow Jones and small-cap Russell have already completed November’s corresponding zig zag rallies so it’s a tight call as to whether… Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
14th February 2026 - Ask any investor to name safe-haven currencies, and most will say the U.S. Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen – they’re expected them to hold their value during geopolitical or### economic stress – we’ve had plenty of that during the last year although these safe-haven trends aren’t exactly linear – they’ve experienced volatility themselves – the US$ dollar and Yen saw sharp declines during the last year and a little into this year, so far. The Swiss franc has strengthened, but this is challenging for a country with unusually low inflation and very low interest rates. We’re currently putting together these safe-haven currency trends into our annual 2026 Part III Currencies & Interest Rates report – due out sometime before month-end, it’ll show just how these performances can turn around for several months, realising some counter-consensus US$ dollar strength. In the meantime…Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
14th February 2026 - Today’s U.S. CPI inflation data came through lower than expected with January’s figure at 0.2%, a notch lower than market expectations whilst the annual figures for both the nominal and core### dropped a tenth of a point too, to 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. This invoked the market’s expectation of Federal Reserve easing, in sharp contrast to Wednesday’s bumper non-farm-payroll data. The US10yr yield has extended lower today and is now on-track to retest the Sep.’24 low of 3.592%. ECB policymakers are voicing complacent satisfaction that inflationary…Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
14th February 2026 - Gold withstood a fairly brutal sell-off during Thursday’s session, declining from 5083.50 down to a low of 4878.79 in quick succession – it was perfect timing for wave b’s correction and it ###completed into the fib. 38.2% retracement level forecast last Wednesday before resuming higher today. It puts gold on-track to continue higher next week as the concluding sequence of a double zig zag rally that’s in progress since the early-February low of 4403.35. Silver also slid lower Thursday, overrunning fib. 38.2% retracement levels into fib. 50% numbers at 73.99 before turning higher today – like gold, silver has resumed higher as the concluding sequence of its expanding flat that began earlier this …Read full summary in our latest report!
