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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

18th May 2024 - According to EPFR’s fund flows and allocations data, investors poured money into stocks and bonds in the week to Wednesday, favouring laggards such as utilities whilst pulling money from pricier parts of the market such as### technology stocks. Equity funds saw $11.9 billion in inflows, while bond funds drew in $11.7 billion while $3.7 billion exited money-market funds. Europe saw its third consecutive week of inflows, with the largest since February 2023 at $1.1 billion. Technology funds experienced outflows for the past two weeks, totalling $900 million, marking the first back-to-back outflow since May 2023. There’s much speculation surrounding next week’s Federal Reserve minutes with most analysts expecting to see rather hawkish remarks, dialling back last Wednesday’s optimism for rate cuts following a dip in CPI inflation. The U.S. benchmark indices are aligned to their European counterparts with May’s advances confirming finalising 5th waves in progress within larger impulse uptrends that began from the Oct.’23 lows – these are also finalising expanding flat patterns or zig zags, depending on the index that began from 2022’s lows. Another 3% to 5% per cent higher and it’s all over – advances are long-overdue for a top although amazingly, U.S. indices are still testing only fib. 38.2% extension levels above 2022’s highs – this is perfect territory to complete ‘B’ waves… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

18th May 2024 - U.S. weekly jobless claims rose by 222,000, slightly above expectations of 220k which constitutes a second week of gradual increases. A rising rate indicates a cooling in the economy, providing some respite in fighting inflationary pressures ###from the Federal Reserve. Financial markets have been building rising expectations of up to two 25bps rate cuts for later this year, fuelling asset buying in stocks and notably base metal commodities. Meanwhile, the declining US$ dollar index from April’s high of 106.51 has confirmed December’s counter-trend rally as minor wave ii. two completed successfully with minor wave iii. three declines underway. Similar although inverse uptrends are being confirmed in the Euro/US$, Stlg/US$, a correlated downtrend for the US$/Yen and US$/CAD whilst a new uptrend for the AUD/US$. Four investment managers shared ideas on how to trade Yen weakness - Florin Court Capital suggested investors should put on bets against Asia's emerging market currencies - AQR Capital Management says BOJ intervention complicates matters for yen bears but .. Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

18th May 2024 - U.S. weekly jobless claims rose by 222,000, slightly above expectations of 220k which constitutes a second week of gradual increases. A rising rate indicates a cooling in the economy, providing some respite in fighting inflationary pressures### from the Federal Reserve. Financial markets have been building rising expectations of up to two 25bps rate cuts for later this year, fuelling asset buying in stocks and notably base metal commodities. Meanwhile, in its latest report, Bank of America says next week’s release of the Fed’s minutes is expected to show a hawkish tone - in the wake of concerns that disinflation could be stalling however, others on the committee were ‘more concerned about whether policy was doing enough’ BofA added. The markets assign a 96% probability of a 25bps interest rate cut in June although European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel pushed back on the idea of back-to-back interest rate cuts, saying inflation risks are still tilted to the upside. While Schnabel backed a rate cut.. Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

18th May 2024 - After some short-term erratic price-swings during the release of Wednesday’s CPI data, gold has overcome an initial decline and continued higher over the last couple of days. This latest push higher seems ordinary enough except for### two aspects – first, the advance from this month’s low of 2278.98 doesn’t easily conform to a five wave expanding-impulse pattern as would be expected having begun minor wave v. five – second, silver’s outperformance is leaving gold behind at a time when both should be keeping pace, especially given silver is already approaching upside targets for wave v. five. In the annual EW-Commodities Outlook report, it stated that this year’s bull markets in precious metals would see silver outperform gold. This month’s gains from 26.00 is really proving this to be correct with silver surging higher today, to 31.60! The gold/silver ratio has consequently narrowed from this.. Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES