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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

24th September 2016 - Last Wednesday’s no-rate-hike announcement from the Federal Reserve has had the effect of a ‘stay of execution’. It has postponed what we see as an inevitable 2-3 month downside risk for global indices where declines begin a sizable double-digit correction. The benchmark S&P’s advance following the FOMC decision ###does have the potential to break above the August high, changing the existing three-wave advance from February’s low as a 1-2-1 sequence into a five-wave diagonal pattern but with limited upside objectives. To realise the diagonal, prices must continue more immediately higher without hesitation as its 5th wave develops into new record highs. The diagonal pattern means that each impulse sequence… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

24th September 2016 - The US$ dollar index had already stalled its advance from the early-September low of 94.47 even before the FOMC meeting announcement last Wednesday, conforming interest rates would remain unchanged. ###So it was no surprise to see the dollar extending declines from the 96.33 high set earlier in the day. This had the effect of delaying not negating the overall upside progress of the dollar’s advance from last May’s low. Some range-trending is set to continue over the coming week or two, unfolding into an Elliott Wave triangle pattern, but most of the immediate impact of weakness following the FOMC announcement has already dispersed. The dollar is on its way… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

24th September 2016 - Last week’s FOMC decision to keep rates on hold has had the inevitable effect of pulling long-dated yields lower during the closing session on Friday. It has isolated a three wave zig zag upswing from the early-July### low of 1.316% for the US10yr yield, insodoing, confirming our original hypothesis that a long-term uptrend was not yet in progress. This of course has been a subject of debate. The deepening loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve and its inability to stimulate inflation or even a steady pick-up in economic… Read full summary in our latest report!


24th September 2016 - Most gold analysts are aware that current price levels are moving right into the apex of trend lines drawn from last year’s lows and from July’s existing highs. Resistance is at 1350.00+/- and support below the early September low of 1302.76. Breaking out either way is likely to see a spike in volatility### as intra-day trader’s jump on the momentum. So which way is it going to break? As things stand, our bearish preferential count could end up being postponed as last week’s action has pulled prices further away from what looks like the completion of a counter-trend decline into that 1302.76 low. But the debate on price direction doesn’t stop there. Should a break to the upside unfold, the next question is how far? Everyone is entitled to a guess, but what of reducing this into something more tangible, based on pattern… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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