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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

8th September 2018 - It’s a very mixed world for global stock markets at the moment with two prevailing forces combatting for supremacy. There’s no doubt that U.S. indices are at important inflection levels and what they do next will ultimately determine their course ###and direction for the remainder of this year. Other global indices are hinting of some nearby support despite Thursday’s tech sell-off in the Nasdaq 100. Reports of a -0.6% per cent decline in the MSCI Emerging Market index with an accumulated -20% decline this year was again the focus of portfolio managers – but what was not reported was the fact that the EEM iShares ETF hit an exact fib. 61.8% extension level of January/February’s initial decline into the mid-August low of 41.13 – and held! Also, the Eurostoxx Banks index has just ended a five wave impulse downswing that began from January’s high ending into this week’s low at 103.88. A counter-trend rally … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

8th September 2018 - The US$ dollar index has continued lower over the last couple of days, moving away from this week’s high of 95.73 which is corroborating the impact of ending a shorter-term upswing but now heading lower again. The index has now traded down to 94.94 which is reducing the probability it could extend the end-August rally any further than### it has already. The next stage of the dollar’s decline is the final sequence within a zig zag correction that began from August’s high of 96.98 – downside targets remain towards 93.48-92.90+/-. The equivalent Euro/US$ zig zag upswing from August’s low of 1.1301 is set to continue now as minor wave c. having ended a temporary pullback ending wave b. earlier this week at 1.1530. Upside targets for minor wave c. remain towards 1.1901-1.2010+/-. Stlg/US$ is engaged in a corrective zig zag upside rally from its mid-August low of 1.2662 – targets are towards 1.3190-255+/- but then declining afterwards to 1.2374+/- as a diagonal pattern unwinds from the earlier June high of 1.3473. US$/Yen has begun the third stage of an expanding flat correction that originated from May’s… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

8th September 2018 - Markets remain jitterish over the impact of additional trade sanctions between the U.S. and China. Beijing officials said that China will be forced to retaliate if the United States implements new tariff measures, China’s Commerce Ministry warned### on Thursday. Meanwhile, the latest batch of economic data from the U.S. was, well, mixed. The August figure of the ISM services index rose to 58.5 from 55.7 in July and 59.1 in June but above estimates. Ahead of Friday’s non-farm-payroll which are expected in the region of 195,000, up from 157k last month, Thursday’s ADP number was 163k but lower than consensus levels of 182k. August’s PMI services figure came through lower than estimates at 54.8 (55.2). The US10yr yield declined from a high of 2.915… Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

8th September 2018 - Commodities have declined this year, but particularly base and precious metals, dragged lower by the US$ dollar’s recovery following last year’s -15% decline and disruptions over supplies caused by threatening trade wars. The US$ dollar remains key though – it ended an initial phase of strength### into August’s high and is already trading lower into a correction which is only half-way to completion. This period of dollar weakness is helping to lift copper higher also gold and silver. The dollar is expected to decline by another -2.5% per cent over the coming weeks. Gold is projected higher, towards 1242.75+/- during this period but this is only a 4th wave rally within a five wave declining impulse pattern that began from January’s high. Silver has traded and tested ultimate downside targets of 14.00+/- which defines the limit for ending its counter-trend that began from the August ’16 high of 20.78. But can it hold this support… Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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