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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

8th August 2020 - U.S. stock markets held onto recent gains through to Friday’s close although Europe’s major indices were down by -8.8% per cent earlier this week before rallying higher. This dislocation is only short-term though – the S&P and Nasdaq have been relative outperformers since the mid-June rallies began but are fast approaching### terminal highs. Whilst these stretch higher in the approach to finishing five wave uptrends from March’s lows, European indices rally into counter-trends prior to resuming their larger corrective downswings that are already underway. It’s noticeable that last week’s rallies… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

8th August 2020 - The US$ dollar has been trading over the last couple of weeks into an oversold condition measured by the latest COT net speculative positioning reports. Investment bank Morgan Stanley said Friday that the dollar was at its most oversold level for over 40-years! - against the Euro currency, Friday’s COT report shows a jump in### long-positioning of 180,600 contracts, a multi-year high that even exceeds the levels of 148,700 that occurred when the Euro/US$ was trading at its peak of primary wave 1 at 1.2556 back in Feb.’18. All this suggests a counter-trend correction is about to begin. It’s difficult to see how that could translate into a larger dip for Stlg/US$ because it has singularly advanced from the late-June (secondary) … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

8th August 2020 - Friday’s latest monthly U.S. non-farm-payroll employment numbers came through at 1.763 million in July as the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%. This was better than consensus forecasts of 1.48 million and 10.6% which tended to lift the US10yr yield higher on the day from 0.517 to 0.574 closing at 0.558%. But overall, this hasn’t### had any significant effect on the downtrend of intermediate wave (C)’s five wave decline that began from June’s reaction high of 0.952 – downside targets remain towards 0.443%. We’ve just seen news that Republicans have turned down… Read full summary in our latest report!


8th August 2020 - Gold’s recent exponential run higher that began from the mid-July price level of 1792.00 is typical of a 5th wave ‘extension’. Prior to this acceleration, intermediate wave (5)’s advance within the five wave uptrend of primary wave 3 from March’s low of 1451.45 was orderly, nothing unusual. But media hype plus analyst enthusiasm has created ###an investor stampede to buy at all costs. Friday’s overnight high of 2071.86 is an ‘overthrow’ of original upside targets of 2035.00+/- published in June ’18 – there are three degrees of trend measuring fib-price-ratios into the 2085.00+/- resistance area, just thirteen bucks from today’s high. It’s also worth noting that cycles peak in August/September then turn down for the remainder of the year. And to cap this off, Friday’s intra-hourly data is confirming the decline late-session to 2015.59 has unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern, heightening the probability that intermediate wave (5)’s extension wave has terminated primary wave 3’s uptrend. Silver’s advance from… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".