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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

22nd January 2021 - The major indices have been diverging for months and to complicate matters, that’s been happening again since forming highs more recently. Attempts at pulling together uniform peaks seems futile when comparing the various U.S. indices### – that also applies to very different patterns in those traded in Europe too. And then there’s Asia – they’ve been in different rhythms since forming peaks 10 months ago! U.S. indices like the Nasdaq 100 have topped out in November whilst the S&P 500 and Dow Jones only this month which mean they have divergent peaks that begin larger counter-trend declines. So far, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices have only declined into three wave sequences – the late-session sell-off tonight (Friday) may change a 1-2-1 sequence into a 1-2-3 should prices… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

22nd January 2021 - The US$ dollar index has traded higher from last week’s low that ended a 4th wave correction into an intra-hourly five wave impulse pattern. This is confirming a 5th wave uptrend has begun, significantly reducing the risk of a break below that recent low of 94.63. This means### the dollar has a clear route higher over the next weeks, targeting original levels towards 98.00+/-. That’s an interesting concept with some traders buying the dollar in a safe-haven punt as stock markets decline – also underpinning dollar strength is the high levels of treasury yields which require one additional advance before ending their corresponding uptrends. The Euro/US$ remains on-track to trade lower over the next weeks … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

22nd January 2021 - Inflationary expectations are through the roof as analysts, financial commentators and pundits alike are revving-up fears of an inflation surge over-and-above what’s happened already. This comes ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting where traders are already ###discussing the potential of a first interest rate increase being hinted for the March meeting. Meanwhile, the US10yr yield’s uptrend from December’s low and from last July’s low is fast approaching upside completion. A brief short-term correction began from last week’s high of 1.898 but it can afterwards turn back higher in one final push towards targets of 2.015%. That’ll end the entire cycle degree A-B-C zig zag from the all-time pandemic low, opening the way for a multi-month correction to begin. That’ll almost certainly signal a downturn in inflationary pressures for several months, at exactly…Read full summary in our latest report!


22nd January 2021 - Precious metals’ counter-trend rallies are coming to an end having traded higher from December’s lows into a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) zig zags. Both gold and silver have attracted speculative buying on the basis of a re-awakened idea that rising inflationary pressures### are actually bullish tailwinds. That concept has been largely ignored even though the 1970’s provided enough history to draw upon – silver has outperformed gold since December, although its doubtful many remember the story of Nelson Bunker and William Herbert Hunt. But in relative terms to inflation versus interest rates, precious metals are inexpensive. They should get a little less expensive too, over the next month as those short-term rallies end, giving way to one final decline for this year – gold towards 1720.00+/- and silver towards 20.60+/-. Crude oil has hit upside targets of minimum 86.20+/- trading to 87.10. It could still stretch a little higher but overall, the best part of… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".