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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

15th February 2025 - Next week’s trading activity around stock indices will almost certainly determine if more immediate declines get underway, or if they’ll be delayed with a key break to the upside, prolonging August’s advance by another +6% per cent, maybe +12% per cent### in European indices which are currently outperforming their U.S. counterparts. December’s resistant highs are being challenged into Friday’s closing levels, although they can still turn downward early next week which would confirm a larger correction has begun. Equally, any break higher will almost certainly encourage asset managers to increase exposure, although that has a narrowing shopping list with only specific equities playing a part – in the event prices break higher, expect a diluting participation – the obvious underplay is the small-cap Russell 2000 which is still trading quite a bit below last November’s high and even then, that high was only able to match the old Nov.’21 high – this is a key determining signal that bearish divergence is evident within the macro advance. Europe’s indices are having their chance of shining in the sun with outperformance over the last month – in today’s report, we show how the Xetra Dax has even outperformed the Eurostoxx 50 since early 2024 although that trend is already 90% per cent completed. When that outperformance ends, it’ll signal a peak – but for now, there’s still upside potential for another month or so. Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

13th February 2025 - Today’s U.S. monthly CPI inflation data came through above expectations of 0.3% at 0.5% per cent with the headline annualised rate ticking higher to 3.0% whilst the core rate was 0.4% and 3.3% per cent. Stock markets ###slid lower, the US$ dollar index rallied, albeit briefly from 107.86 to 108.52 whilst the US10yr yield ran higher from 4.518 to 4.659 – stock indices later recovered almost all of the losses whilst the dollar sank back to 107.62. Nothing has changed within the larger picture that shows the dollar beginning a new five wave impulse decline from January’s high of 110.17. The Euro/US$ pulled a little lower following today’s U.S. CPI data to 1.0317 but later recovered, confirming its existing uptrend that began from January’s low. A similar short-term dip for Stlg/US$ today to 1.2377 but recovering later to 1.2485 confirms its existing uptrend with a short-term caveat for a corrective dip – US$/Yen has suddenly sprung higher from last week’s low of 150.93 to ... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

13th February 2025 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s first day of testimonies began where he reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation down and signalled that policymakers aren’t in a### rush to push interest rates lower. In remarks before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell called the economy ‘strong overall’ with a ‘solid’ labour market and inflation that is easing but still above the Fed’s 2% goal. With those conditions prevailing, he said the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly to ease monetary policy. In today’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, he noted that today’s hot CPI data is confirming the Fed’s delay in postponing more rate cuts. Today’s update for the US10yr yield returns to an earlier wave count that depicts upside progress of around 50bps in a reattempt back to cycle... Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

15th February 2025 - Gold traded up to 2943.20 during Tuesday’s session having overreached upside targets just below – but its zig zag upswing from November’s low of 2536.70 remains intact and with price-rejection since, trading to 2865.14, it’s heightened the probability### that prices have ended their run higher for the time being with declines now underway towards 2391.50+/- during the next few months. Silver attracted significant speculative buying this week as gold’s advance to record highs caught the attention of investors, seeing silver’s underperformance as an opportunity to bridge the gap in relative values. The gold/silver ratio narrowed from 91.85 down to 87.74 reflecting silver’s outperformance but it later today, traded back higher to close at 89.59 again underperforming during silver’s sharp downturn from today’s high of 33.47 to close at 32.18. This week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) petroleum status report showed another inventory ... Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES