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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

19th October 2019 - October’s advance in the benchmark S&P 500 from 2855.00 has so far at least, unfolded into a three wave, 5-3-5 sequence ending into Thursday’s high of 3008.00. Not all three wave sequences are zig zag corrections, they can be a more bullish 1-2-1 sequence or even 1-2-3 depending on its proportion measurement. So which is it? The answer will provide clues to the larger picture emerging from August’s lows.### It’s a fact that August’s lows in the Eurostoxx 50 and Xetra Dax indices ended 4-month expanding flat corrections, so the larger picture, without doubt, is very bullish – that applies to U.S. indices too. But the short-term picture could swing another +2.0% per cent higher from here, or decline -5.5% per cent. Should levels remain… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

19th October 2019 - The US$ dollar index declined again today as it pulls steadily away from the early-October high of 99.66. That high ended a 2nd wave zig zag correction that took 20-months to complete from the Feb.’18 low. Furthermore, the zig zag completed with wave ‘c’ as an ending-diagonal – we know that such patterns are always followed by abrupt, sharp price movements in the opposite direction once completed, so we shouldn’t be surprised### to see such tenacity in the dollar’s current sell-off. Extending the initial down-sequence by a fib. 161.8% ratio projects short-term downside targets for the next few weeks towards 95.87+/-. That’s another -1.5% per cent below Friday’s closing levels – it’s already down by -2.4% per cent. This is a resumption of the US$ dollar’s 7.8-year cycle downtrend that began in early 2017 which means a protracted decline is set to unfold throughout the next year. The Euro/US$’s equivalent short-term upside… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

19th October 2019 - The US10yr yield lagged behind the lows of the S&P 500 that formed last August when it traded down from 1.715 to an eventual 3rd wave low at 1.429 but both have since pulled higher. This means their positive correlation remains in-step. The big difference though is that stock markets are trending higher whilst treasury yields are trending lower. How can they be positively correlated then? It’s all about### price-amplitudes. When stocks push strongly higher, treasury yields simply underperform, undergoing modest counter-trend upside rallies – when stocks retrace lower into a correction, treasury yields fall proportionately larger which continues its downtrend. This is the story since the US10yr yield began its five wave impulse decline from the Oct.’18 high of 3.262. Since August/September, the ten-year… Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

19th October 2019 - Precious metals remain an interesting and complex story. Gold bugs are rampant and we still receive bullish analyst notes every day. We’ve not seen such sentiment since the peak of 2011. When gold hit its high last month at 1557.29, the COT net speculative long-positioning was over 300,000 contracts. Today’s figure is 253,000 which means there’s been some long-liquidation, but not enough to sustain another run-up like### we’ve seen since last May when gold was trading down at 1266.10. The daily and weekly composite cycles point down from September’s peak lasting through to March 2020 so we’re not expecting too much upside progress until more liquidation has occurred. That said, there’s a short-term upside bias because the decline into October’s low of 1459.00 did unfold into a zig zag corrective pattern. That translates into some sort of recovery before more declines later. We’ve been wondering why silver didn’t break above its July ’16 high of 21.17 whilst gold broke above its equivalent high of 1375.00 by a significant margin. Isn’t silver supposed to outperform gold in during uptrends… Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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