ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
21st February 2026 - U.S. equity funds saw a substantial inflow of capital in the week to February 18 on easing worries over a selloff in the technology sector after a cooler consumer price inflation report### boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors racked up a net $11.77 billion worth of U.S. equity funds, registering their largest net purchase for a week since January 14. That was in stark contrast to the latest Bank of America fund manager survey that was compiled mid-January to mid-February showing allocation to U.S. equities falling to a net -22% underweight, down from a -3% underweight in January’s report and compared to a net -6% overweight last December. Such a switch-around is … Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
21st February 2026 - The US$ dollar index extended its recent short-term advance from the previous week’s low of 96.49 over the last couple of days, breaking above the early-February high of 97.98 that completed ###minute wave 1’s advance from January’s low of 95.55 to an overnight high of 98.07. This is consistent with a more direct upside acceleration for minute wave 3 next week. Comparable 3rd wave declines are forecast for the other G10 dollar pairs – the Euro/US$ is poised for downside acceleration as minute wave 3 as is Stlg/US$. This is expected to assert US$ dollar strength which has been a contrarian idea since the back-end of last year. US$/Yen is aiming for a retest of upside resistance towards 157.76+/- ahead of completing a short-term correction whilst US$/CAD is signalling further gains as its 3rd … Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
21st February 2026 - Fears are mounting that the U.S. could be on the brink of a major military confrontation with Iran - the Trump administration is considering a 'weeks-long campaign' in Iran that could look ###like 'full-fledged war' and prove 'existential for the regime' in a move that could have a 'dramatic influence on the entire region.' It could also have a dramatic effect on interest rates too, fuelling safe-haven bond-buying, pulling the US10yr yield lower, continuing its existing downtrend that resumed last month from 4.312. In an effort to quash speculation…Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
21st February 2026 - The latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows long-gold as the most crowded trade at 50%, leading the billboard with long-Mag-7 in second place at 20% and short-US$ dollar in third at### 12%. Gold found its low completing minute wave b’s correction earlier this week at 4842.77 and is well underway to the upside now, as minute wave c towards targets of 5380.00+/-. Silver is also undergoing a revival following its recent corrective pullback between 84.03-72.03 – prices resuming minor wave b.’s expanding flat pattern targeting max. 101.68+/-. Crude oil prices have just broken above the previous end-January high of 66.48 to 67.03 during today’s session – it’s a similar theme in the US$ dollar which itself is attracting safe-haven buying following today’s comments from U.S. president Trump, signalling… Read full summary in our latest report!
