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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

16th January 2021 - Friday’s declines in key benchmark U.S. indices have traded low enough to heighten ‘reversal-signatures’ that go some way in confirming an end to multi-month advances. The US$ dollar index bottomed a couple of days ahead of the S&P 500’s high of 3824.50 earlier this month and there was still uncertainty over whether indices would stretch just that little ###bit higher ahead of next week’s U.S. Presidential inauguration. But that seems a diminishing prospect basis Friday’s late sell-off. It’s just not possible to include Friday’s decline into the ending-diagonal pattern that lifted the S&P 500 futures higher from the early-November lows – it’s now traded too low far for that. If it were somehow to swing back higher, breaking the highs, it wouldn’t be a diagonal pattern anymore and the chances of that are remote given the three wave sequences within each of its impulse waves. So all this means… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

16th January 2021 - The US$ dollar index found its legs on Friday having retraced some of the early-month advances from 3-year lows of 89.21 earlier last week with another strong push higher. This is going a long way in confirming the 89.21 low as ending the March ’20 five wave impulse decline that began from 102.99. It heralds an end to the risk-on period that has### lasted the last ten months whilst opening the way for a multi-month corrective rally that summons a period of risk-off right across the other asset classes too. Composite cycle analysis depicts the dollar’s rise lasting longer than mid-year whilst upside targets are towards 95.50+/- or about +7% per cent higher. There is no trigger for this event to occur – all the fundamental news like increasing COVID-19 infection rates, secondary lockdowns, mutations are already factored in but changes in direction often begin like this, quietly – only later do analysts build a… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

16th January 2021 - President-elect Joe Biden detailed his $1.9tn stimulus package on Thursday with the most important aspect of his plan being the impact in the government bond markets. To fund the package, the Fed will need to increase debt issuance which ultimately results in higher inflationary pressures, putting pressure on the central bank to wind down its bond-buying programme### and potentially even increase interest rates earlier than expected. Such events would normally send yields higher, and they have been rising but that could now change, at least for the next few months. Despite better-than-expected quarterly earnings figures from several investment banks, stocks slipped lower which in turn, pulled the US10yr yield lower to 1.092. This is not yet enough to confirm an end to intermediate wave (1)’s uptrend that began from August’s low of 0.500 but regardless, upside potential is seen as limited. A period.. Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

16th January 2021 - The intensified bullish research notes that have prevailed during the last several months in the aftermath of last August’s peak at 2072.12 have diminished significantly, as you’d expect when price declines have lasted over 5-months now. One or two bullish analyst notes do still crop up – the latest is Standard Chartered who’s interns predict gold will trade### above $2000 this year. That’s not a statement that predicts a break above the highs, just a reattempt close to it, again, another indication of the muted bullishness that prevailed at the highs. From an Elliott Wave perspective, August’s decline is labelling this downswing as a double/triple zig zag pattern where targets remain towards 1660.00+/-. That certainly seems possible, especially if the US$ dollar is beginning to show signs of turning higher now. Silver’s higher beta than gold maintains its volatility which itself commands the volatile fluctuations in the gold/silver ratio. Since trading down this month from 27.94, silver has underperformed to the downside having previously outperformed during December’s advance. January’s high at 27.94 ended minor wave b.’s rally within intermediate wave (4)’s contracting/symmetrical-triangle pattern – wave c. has since begun to develop lower now with targets towards 22.80+/-. In the energy sector, OPEC left its 2021 forecasts…Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES