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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

18th January 2017 - U.S. and European stock markets and all those locked into positive-correlations began short-term counter-trend declines from the late-December/early-January highs. ###There’s no question that these are simply corrections within the prevailing, dominant uptrend that began last year because the S&P, Dow Jones (DJIA) and small-cap Russell indices have each subdivided into overlapping sequences. The only question is whether these corrections are ending now or could extend a little lower. Some fib-price-ratio discrepancies are found in measuring these declines so whilst this exists, there is always potential for the markets to stretch a little lower before resuming the larger uptrend. The Nasdaq 100 is a case study of short-term divergence because... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

18th January 2017 - The US$ dollar has edged lower against the major G4 currencies over the last few days but the US$ dollar index’s latest attempt towards downside targets at 99.78+/- may be nearing the end of its counter-trend from January’s high. ###Confirming the completion of this counter-trend pattern is probably the most important event so far this year. This next test will determine whether the US$ dollar stages an additional advance to new 15-year highs or has otherwise already ended its 8-year upswing into the Jan. 3rd high of 103.82. We assess the probability that it will turn back higher – this certainly fits the negative-correlation with precious metals ...Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

18th January 2017 - U.S. Industrial Production climbed 0.8% in December, the largest percentage rise since November 2014 which underlines the pick-up in overall economic activity. Earlier ###last month, gains in the ISM’s production index, manufacturing payrolls and an increase in hours worked by production workers adds to the overall upbeat picture. In such circumstances, the US10yr yield would be expected to stage another leg to upside gains, but in fact the opposite has been true since reaching an interim peak last December at 2.641%. This high watermark ended a... Read full summary in our latest report!


18th January 2017 - The latest COT reports show that investors are finally returning to buy gold and silver. The net speculative long positions in gold are up 8,325 to 54,399 contracts whilst silver is higher by 2,786 to 46,169 contracts. Isn’t it ironic that this latest### pick up features just about the same time that gold and silver are ending their five wave impulse advancing patterns from December’s lows. That may be of no concern to the hedge fund that is playing the medium-term uptrend, but it is another indication of short-term sentiment extremes. Precious metals continue to trade negatively with the US$ dollar – the dollar index is just finishing a corrective decline from January’s high and is preparing to turn back higher – no wonder gold and silver are set to begin a corresponding counter-trend decline. The good news is that larger uptrends...Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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