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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

18th January 2020 - U.S. stock markets continue to push higher despite mixed corporate earnings results from the investment banks. Thursday/Friday’s advance was certainly helped by the signing-off of the U.S./China phase-one trade deal – Asian markets were more modestly higher. In Europe, the major indices are ###lagging behind the U.S.’s gains in a sign of bearish divergence. Wednesday’s report noted that CNN’s Fear & Greed index had tipped above 90% per cent and Friday’s latest sentiment from AAII showed bulls gaining 8.8 points to 41.8% whist bears dropped by 2.4 points to 27.5%. That’s not so extreme as CNN’s index, but high enough to trigger a correction, sometime soon – the question is when? October’s five wave impulse uptrend in the benchmark S&P 500 has already traded… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

18th January 2020 - Friday’s latest U.S. Housing Starts came through much stronger than consensus forecasts of 1.373m units at 1.608m which proved to be a new 13-year high, suggesting the housing market recovery was back on track amid low mortgage rates. This has followed mixed results in manufacturing but there### was a feel-good factor after last Wednesday’s signing of the U.S./China phase-one trade agreement that was missing before. The US$ dollar was at a crossroad earlier in the week, but the index’s break above key nearby resistance at 97.58 to 97.65 has lifted the fog, confirming upside continuity over the next few weeks targeting levels towards 98.95+/- in order to complete a corrective expanding flat pattern that began lifting the dollar higher from October/November’s lows. Equally, the Euro/US$...Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

18th January 2020 - The US10yr yield remains just below last November’s high of 1.965 which ended September’s corrective zig zag. It’s been taking time to accelerate lower as the 5th wave within the five wave impulse downtrend that began from the Oct.’18 high of 3.262 but then it’s entitled to. Perhaps it’s waiting for a### corrective downturn in the stock market, so that price-synchronisation is maintained. If so, it may not have to wait too long. Stock indices are only 1.2% away from beginning that correction. It’s uncertain what the trigger would be because there’s growing bullish sentiment for the economy now that the U.S./China phase-one trade deal has been signed. But 2018’s downtrend is almost certainly incomplete. Yields rose marginally Friday after the U.S. announced plans to issue a new 20-year bond… Read full summary in our latest report!


18th January 2020 - Gold is approaching short-term upside targets of 1566.65+/- to complete a counter-trend rally that began earlier this month from 1540.00. It could have already ended into Friday’s high of 1561.50 although to do that, it would end a running flat pattern instead. The US$ dollar broke above short-term### resistance Friday which puts it on course to trade higher over the next few weeks, but the only other headwind that could suddenly trigger gold sharply lower would be if investors being unwinding the huge long-positioning that has accumulated over the last year. Friday’s latest COT net speculative long-positioning figure is at 319.2k, down fractionally from 322.3k but still at 10-year highs. So what could trigger long-liquidation? Perhaps growing confidence in the economy, the stock market following the removal of doubt associated with the ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China, especially after last week’s signing of the phase-one trade agreement. Any downturn could be big because the larger picture defines the decline from January’s high of 1611.37 as beginning a proportional correction to the Aug.’18 advance from 1160.24. Silver’s corresponding short-term…Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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