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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

12th June 2021 - Trying to pull together the U.S./European indices into a concise short-term topping formation is challenging. The S&P 500 futures nudged momentarily into a higher-high today, but unconvincing in its break-out. It’s debateable whether this high ended a zig zag pattern from May’s corrective low or perhaps### a five wave diagonal – the diagonal has merit whilst the zig zag does proportionately, measure up nicely. There are consequences for both – as a zig zag, the S&P would be required to pull back inside the recent trading range to continue a corrective triangle prior to one final push to record highs afterwards…. Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

12th June 2021 - All eyes were focused on the two major events of the day to see if some volatility would return to the currency markets. The European Central Bank announced no interest rate changes, no surprise there, adding the ECB remains committed to purchasing €1.85 trillion euros of bonds until March 2022 as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). May’s U.S. CPI### numbers came through at 0.6% month-on-month which was above consensus expectations with year-on-year figures at 5.0% per cent. You’d think that would have sent the dollar higher but it didn’t, continuing to trade in its current lethargic range. But this negative response to the dollar was explained away by a shift in consensus expectations over inflationary pressures – it seems investors…Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

12th June 2021 - The US10yr yield has broken below near-term support at 1.513 during Wednesday’s trading, following today’s benign statement from the European Central bank (ECB) and more soothing remarks from Federal Reserve spokespersons ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting about inflationary pressures being transitory. The shifting sentiment### over inflationary pressures was highlighted today when the latest CPI figures were announced – headline consumer prices rose 5.0% year over year in May, the fastest pace since August 2008. The 3.8% rise in the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was the sharpest increase in nearly three decades! He US10yr yield is accelerating lower, but in-line with…Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

12th June 2021 - Precious metals have been relatively inactive over the last couple of weeks but today’s ECB interest rate announcement confirming the continuation of monetary stimulus together with the U.S. CPI data showing rising inflationary pressures but nullified by the Fed’s ‘transitory’ comments### has actually provided some short-term stability for gold and to some extent, silver too. Gold’s late-March advance is attempting to develop the final stages of a five wave impulse pattern and these central bank comments are giving it every reason to push higher as its concluding 5th wave, targeting 1968.96+/-. Silver has remained below last month’s high of 28.77 which ended the late-March rally from 23.78 as a corrective zig zag. That would ordinarily translate into another impulse decline getting underway towards 21.74+/- but with gold heading higher, interest rates lower and the US$ dollar index… Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES