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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

19th May 2018 - U.S. indices ended five wave impulse uptrends from the early-May lows last Monday which explains why prices suddenly halted their advances and went into reverse as short-term counter-trend corrections play out. They’re not quite finished just yet so this coming ###week is expected to begin with modest declines. These latest price-swings form part of the 3rd wave advance within the diagonal uptrends that began from the early-April lows. Once the short-term corrections are out of the way, sometime later this week, then the diagonal patterns can continue trending higher for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones (DJIA), the Russell 2000 … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

19th May 2018 - The US$ dollar index traded to a new 5-month high last week to 93.83 despite a 6bps slip in US treasury yields from a 7-year high of 3.127% per cent. The dollar’s advance from February’s low of 88.26 has begun a multi-month corrective### upswing that was predicted to begin last February from around the 87.72+/- area (see annual report – video series, part III). April’s upward acceleration is characteristic of 3rd wave behaviour which translates into a developing five wave impulse pattern with upside targets towards 95.44+/- during the next month. This ends wave a. within a developing a-b-c zig zag and from this we can determine completion at much higher levels and taking several more months before completions. The Euro/US$ is approaching the end of its equivalent 3rd wave within its developing five wave impulse downtrend that began from February’s high of 1.2556. A counter-trend 4th wave rally is set to begin prior to a 5th wave decline targeting levels towards 1.1533+/-. Stlg/US$ is unfolding lower from April’s high of 1.4377… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

19th May 2018 - U.S. treasuries attracted some safe-haven buying towards the end of the week with the US10yr yield having earlier traded up to a new 7-year high of 3.127% per cent. Friday’s 6bps decline was caused by a reassessment of geopolitical instability### in the Middle East, centered around events in Syria and Iran. But also the latest news from Italy where the 5-Star Movement Party and the League Party are attempting…Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

19th May 2018 - Precious metals stabilised towards the end of last week following declines that began from the mid-April highs. Gold ran down to 1286.25 during Friday’s session but is now close to, if not already ending its five wave impulse pattern from 1365.36 ###and the larger three wave corrective pattern from January’s high. This opens the way for a sustainable upswing to develop over the next month or so, targeting original upside levels towards 1416.00-43.00+/-. Impressively, silver held above its early-May low of 16.05 last week, touching 16.18 before closing at 16.45 despite the lower-low in gold. This creates a bullish divergence but silver will need to break above the May 11th high of 16.85 to confirm its next advance to 17.85+/- has begun. We remain steadfastly bullish over the next several weeks even though the US$ dollar… Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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