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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

30th June 2022 - The major U.S. benchmark stock indices got off to a positive start earlier this week with upside momentum continuing from last week’s late advance from the mid-June lows. But rising anxieties### over recession fears has switched attention away from inflation into economic stagflation with indices selling off through today’s session. Despite the persistent gloom, it’s important to remember that mid-June’s lows in the S&P 500, Dow Jones (DJIA) and Nasdaq 100 each completed a-b-c zig zags from the November/January peaks. This current upturn is labelled as a corrective x wave rally but Monday’s highs are far too small to complete the entirety of this rally, even though each index has so far rallied into a tiny three wave sequence. Counter-trends are often complex and this one is expected to be the same and although Tuesday’s/Wednesday’s sell-off is causing bearish anxiety, we’d expect it to turn higher again, without breaking to lower lows. Some confidence comes from the fact that Europe’s Eurostoxx 50 completed a short-term zig zag downswing from Monday’s high today whilst the Xetra Dax has trended higher from the mid-June low into a five wave … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

30th June 2022 - Although there’s evidence of weakening U.S. economic data, in PMI’s, manufacturing as the labour market’s trajectory is faltering, the dollar has been strengthening this week on safe-haven ###buying. The media is reflecting growing anxieties over a possible economic recession with daily reporting of analysis and opinion that a hard-landing is unavoidable as the Federal Reserve maintains its incremental rate-hike expectancy. There’s been a perceptual shift away from rising inflationary pressures with more focus on concerns of a recession – but this latest advance in the US$ dollar index is perfect timing, representing the final sequence within last year’s uptrend. One final push towards upside targets of 106.30+/- and then its done! – the dollar will also end two higher digress of trend that date back to the pre-financial-crisis lows, so this next peak is a big one – it means the dollar... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

30th June 2022 - Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said at the ECB’s central bank symposium at Sintra, Portugal that he’s determined to control rising inflationary pressures and will not allow it to take hold### of the economy over the longer term – he added ‘we’re strongly committed to using our tools to get inflation to come down’. Treasury yields have mostly declined from June’s peaks into three wave corrective sequences, especially visible in the US2yr, US5yr and even the US30yr yields ending last Thursday – this isn’t consistent with a larger, corrective yield decline that we were expecting, but they are consistent with a shallower corrective downswing continuing lower over the coming month. The US10yr yield can be labelled as completing a five wave sequence from the high, implying downside continuity once a short-term correction to the upside has completed – that should prevent any break above June’s high – this is being confirmed by the Italian ITY10yr yield which has also declined from June’s high of 4.183% into last Friday’s low of 3.322 – again, this implies downside continuity once a short-term corrective upswing has completed over the next … Read full summary in our latest report!


30th June 2022 - There’s a noticeable lack of bullish sentiment and reports/newsletters right now which is not surprising given gold’s decline since reaching the March highs - but from a contrarian standpoint,### this is exactly the type of extreme sentiment needed to begin a new uptrend. Commerzbank reports sizable outflows in ETF’s for both gold and silver whilst others question why gold’s ownership is so low during an inflationary environment. With the US$ dollar about to finalise its uptrend, then turning lower, that should provide an upside boost to gold, triggering 3rd wave upside acceleration. But it’s absolutely critical gold holds above May’s low of 1789.15 in order to secure the current uptrend following a zig zag competition from March’s high. Any break below would precipitate a prolongation of primary wave 4’s correction from the Aug. ’20 high towards that old downside target of 1595.00+/-. Silver is in a similar balancing position. Silver’s expanding flat pattern from the Aug. ’20 high is a picture-perfect completion into May’s low of 20.44 – it has since responded higher in a very positive way, trading up to 22.57 then pulling lower into a corrective pattern to current levels of 20.59 – but it must press higher now, without breaking below May’s low of 20.44 to remain bullish. Any downside break below 20.44 would otherwise suggest silver will continue lower over the next months towards 17.39+/-. In the Energy markets, we’re please to report that... Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".