learn more about EW Forecasts

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

24th October 2020 - The latest U.S. presidential election opinion polls puts Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by 64.4% versus 35.6%. Large investors are positioning their portfolios for a Democrat win, buying assets like Invesco’s Solar ETF which has risen about +24% over the last month ###anticipating clean energy policies under a Biden administration would do well for the sector. Hedge funds are talking about rising treasury yields believing a Democrat win would trigger new coronavirus fiscal spending on a sale not seen before. And there’s always uncertainty if the voting results are uncertain or contested which would likely result in even more sustained volatility for all the asset classes, not just equites. If contested, the result may not be clear until Thanksgiving on Nov. 26th – that would certainly send equites lower during the next several weeks which is a realistic possibility from an Elliott Wave perspective. Many U.S. indices… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

24th October 2020 - The US$ dollar index (DXY) has been in a corrective decline since late-September from 94.74 labelled wave [x] within an advancing double zig zag that originated from the early-September low of 91.74. Downside targets are being approached this coming week, towards ###92.35-18+/- although it’s advisable not to be too quick in preparing for the next [a]-[b]-[c] zig zag advance because equivalent upside targets for commodity currencies like the Aussie $ dollar AUD/US$ are still some way from finishing corresponding upside for wave (X) towards 0.7288+/-. There was a brief period last week when the DXY was declining alongside major stock indices – that was unusual because up until then, these two have been in…Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

24th October 2020 - Precious metals are a little more sensitive to the US$ dollar’s movements of late, lessening its reliance on risk-on/risk-off mood-swings that has dominated trading since August/September. The direction of interest rates is something to watch too – a lot gold’s bullish### research notes published by the bulge-bracket sell-side since March relied on the fact that short-term interest rates were being held low by the Federal Reserve – good point – but what if long-dated treasury yields pump higher after the Presidential election as Congress passes is second aid package, inducing higher interest rate funding costs? What happens to gold then? Does it collapse lower as the support mechanisms disappear, or will it trend higher again on a weakening dollar? Those two competing fundamentals will have to be augmented into a new narrative if gold is to later resume its longer-term uptrend. For the time being, our Elliott Wave outlook remains bearish with downside targets towards 1722.75+/- although this could change if prices were to break above this month’s high… Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

21st October 2020 - The outlook for precious metals is currently a little mixed despite a bearish bias. Gold has three potential wave counts – two depict prices remaining below either this month’s high of 1933.61 or### perhaps from below higher levels of 1967.25+/- but then heading lower as a secondary zig zag pattern targeting 1722.75+/- into year-end – the third allows a more continued push higher over the next couple of months, targeting 2128.50+/-. The difference between the preferential bearish and alternate bullish counts is simply the way primary wave 4 intends to complete its corrective downswing from August’s high of 2072.12 – as a double zig zag pattern or an expanding flat. Meanwhile, silver... Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

PRODUCTS & SERVICES

EW FORECASTS

Our Flagship Institutional Service updating multiple time-frames across all asset classes...

Live Update FORUM

A unique advisory service that links you 'Live' in a private online meeting room with our analysts...

WTI Alerts

'Register' now and receive the latest EW-Product-Alerts via e-mail with updates for WaveSearch & up-coming tutorials and seminars.

TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES