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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

30th March 2023 - There’s been several attempts by central bank officials to dispel any contagion effect and spill-over from the recent banking failures in the U.S. and Switzerland, but Elliott Wave analysis ###shows a clear path lower for the major stock indices over the coming months, suggesting more trouble ahead. Earlier today, Philip Lane, member of the Executive Board of the ECB and chief economist explained that the EU banking system is healthier than before the financial-crisis of 2007-08 and that it’s unlikely the EU banking system will see similar collapses as those of the regional U.S. banks or the likes of Credit Suisse – brave words! Since the market has come to believe the latest banking turmoil has settled down and central banks are coming to the end of their interest rate hiking cycle, the noticeable outperformer for the last couple of weeks has been technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 pushed slightly above February’s high last week, confirming October’s advance is a five wave ending-type diagonal pattern that is approaching upside completion – it requires another push … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

30th March 2023 - The US$ dollar index completed a short-term corrective downswing from the early-March high of 105.88 into last week’s low of 101.92 and is now turning higher to resume February’s multi-month ###counter-trend rally. This dollar rally is simply a correction to last year’s five wave impulse decline from 114.78 ending at 100.82 – there’s a lot more dollar buying before upside completion, which suggests the dollar is attracting safe-haven buyers in an environment of a weakening global economy and a declining stock market. The Euro/US$ has completed its inverse upside rally to 1.0931 last week and has since begun to pull lower, resuming its counter-trend decline that began from February’s high of 1.1035. Stlg/US$ is equally expected to resume lower... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

30th March 2023 - In the aftermath of last week’s Federal Reserve rate hike, much has been debated on whether there will be any more rate hikes during this current cycle. The banking sector has undergone a major### fallout with the insolvency of Silicon Valley and the rescue of First Republic Bank – also the rescue of Credit Suisse in Switzerland. Almost certainly, the first-round of the medium-term rate-hike cycle is approaching completion but there may yet be a surprising, unexpected twist. Whilst US2yr and DE2yr yields have almost certainly topped out, the US10yr and DE10yr yields are still rising in an impulse uptrend that began from the pandemic lows. Corrections from the October/February highs are incomplete to the downside, but another 50bps decline for both … Read full summary in our latest report!


30th March 2023 - Gold’s recent reaction lower from pre-determined upside targets of 2012.30+/- from an actual high of 2009.80 has increased the probability that intermediate wave (1)’s entire five wave impulse ###uptrend from September’s low has completed. This seems most probable because the US$ dollar index has just completed its inverse corrective downswing from March’s high and is already turning higher to resume February’s larger corrective upswing. Silver nudged slightly higher last Friday to 23.56 but it has since been unable to push any higher this week. This is most probably because it’s finishing a counter-trend zig zag rally from the early-March low of 19.87 as minor wave b. within intermediate wave (5)’s zig zag downswing that began from February’s high of 24.67. That’s bearish across the next month or two, targeting modest lower lows, slightly below last September’s low of 17.54. Oil prices continued to climb higher for a third consecutive day after industry data showed a surprisingly large draw-down in U.S. crude stocks, pointing to tighter supply in the near-term. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by just over 6 million barrels in the week ended on March 24, ... Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".