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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

23rd July 2016 - Quarterly earnings continue to roll across the news screens – GM raised its full-year forecast after a strong Q2 result, GE beating estimates with strong results from American Air, American Express, Blackstone,### Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and PayPal. Amongst the underperformers were Starbucks, Dunkin’ Brands, Intel, Skechers’ and American Airlines. The overall impression has been that most corporates have performed well and this is being translated into overall gains for the S&P 500 during the last week. Despite the upbeat results, the index remains below critical resistance at 2184.42+/-. This number is derived from labelling the post-Brexit upswing from 1991.68 as a three wave zig zag pattern, itself part of a larger expanding flat correction. The golden-ratio 0.618 is used to define the completion of the zig zag advance but confirmation will only be given on evidence of a reversal-signature. That would mean a sudden… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

23rd July 2016 - Sterling/British Pound took centre stage towards the end of last week as the U.K.’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said that his ministry was prepared to ‘reset’ fiscal policy if need as a direct result of the Brexit vote. This was followed by a rather devastating July PMI which measures services and manufacturing. ###The index fell to its lowest level in seven years, declining by the fastest pace on record from 52.3 to 47.4. Stlg/US$ traded lower from 1.3291 to 1.3081 heightening the risk of a downside continuation towards 1.2692+/- during the coming week. But one positive for the currency is the fact that it has already begun to recover against other cross-currencies like Euro/Stlg and Stlg/DKK. This should place certain limits to the Pound’s decline against the US$ dollar. The US$ dollar index is heading towards upside targets as wave ‘d’ of its multi-year triangle pattern whilst the Euro/US$ heads towards equivalent lows at 1.0705+/-. The US$/Yen has reacted lower from last week’s high of 107.49 but additional gains will be needed to develop the advance from 99.01 into a five wave impulse pattern. Downside risk is increasing whilst the S&P 500 index remains below critical resistance at 2184.42+/-. Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

23rd July 2016 - Long dated yields were higher at the beginning of last week as stock markets continued their advance to record highs in synchronisation. But a noticeable rejection occurred from the US10yr yield high of 1.621% that triggers an ongoing### retracement decline during the next week. Next week’s Bank of Japan rate policy meeting is expected to announce a new economic stimulus package although in a BBC radio interview recorded a month ago, Governor Kuroda dismissed the idea of ‘helicopter money’ being issued into the monetary system, stating clearly that there was ‘no need and no possibility’ of such action in the future… Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

23rd July 2016 - In an interview with CNBC, Goldman Sachs’ commodity analyst has raised targets for gold to $1300.00 dollars. With prices already trading to $1375.00 earlier this month, what does this tell us? Only that the investment ###bank has been perennial bears and are now chasing the market higher. Their timing couldn’t be worse as the short-term picture confirms a five wave impulse pattern in the decline to last week’s low at 1310.90. This indicates gold will continue lower for the next several weeks. Silver has found a double-bottom support… Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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