ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
12th June 2021 - Trying to pull together the U.S./European indices into a concise short-term topping formation is challenging. The S&P 500 futures nudged momentarily into a higher-high today, but unconvincing in its break-out. It’s debateable whether this high ended a zig zag pattern from May’s corrective low or perhaps### a five wave diagonal – the diagonal has merit whilst the zig zag does proportionately, measure up nicely. There are consequences for both – as a zig zag, the S&P would be required to pull back inside the recent trading range to continue a corrective triangle prior to one final push to record highs afterwards…. Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
12th June 2021 - All eyes were focused on the two major events of the day to see if some volatility would return to the currency markets. The European Central Bank announced no interest rate changes, no surprise there, adding the ECB remains committed to purchasing €1.85 trillion euros of bonds until March 2022 as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). May’s U.S. CPI### numbers came through at 0.6% month-on-month which was above consensus expectations with year-on-year figures at 5.0% per cent. You’d think that would have sent the dollar higher but it didn’t, continuing to trade in its current lethargic range. But this negative response to the dollar was explained away by a shift in consensus expectations over inflationary pressures – it seems investors…Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
12th June 2021 - The US10yr yield has broken below near-term support at 1.513 during Wednesday’s trading, following today’s benign statement from the European Central bank (ECB) and more soothing remarks from Federal Reserve spokespersons ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting about inflationary pressures being transitory. The shifting sentiment### over inflationary pressures was highlighted today when the latest CPI figures were announced – headline consumer prices rose 5.0% year over year in May, the fastest pace since August 2008. The 3.8% rise in the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was the sharpest increase in nearly three decades! He US10yr yield is accelerating lower, but in-line with…Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
12th June 2021 - Precious metals have been relatively inactive over the last couple of weeks but today’s ECB interest rate announcement confirming the continuation of monetary stimulus together with the U.S. CPI data showing rising inflationary pressures but nullified by the Fed’s ‘transitory’ comments### has actually provided some short-term stability for gold and to some extent, silver too. Gold’s late-March advance is attempting to develop the final stages of a five wave impulse pattern and these central bank comments are giving it every reason to push higher as its concluding 5th wave, targeting 1968.96+/-. Silver has remained below last month’s high of 28.77 which ended the late-March rally from 23.78 as a corrective zig zag. That would ordinarily translate into another impulse decline getting underway towards 21.74+/- but with gold heading higher, interest rates lower and the US$ dollar index… Read full summary in our latest report!
