ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
1st August 2026 - The disparative performances of major equity markets outlined in the mid-year Stock Indices Part I report/video has continued this week – on Wednesday, Meta/Facebook shares traded down -###10% after its latest quarterly results whilst Microsoft headed higher by +7% - overnight Thursday, Apple Inc. has declined -8% whilst Amazon has surged higher by +14% per cent. The Korean Kospi has traded down into original targets of 5306.50+/- to an actual low of 5262.77 then rebounding higher – that’s really bullish – and in today’s report, we’ve updated SK Hynix – original downside targets were 1379447+/- and it’s since traded down this week to 1246000, pretty close considering this was forecast at the recent high of 2987000. It’s not uniformly bullish across everything though – many tech stocks will still need to... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
1st August 2026 - Currency intervention by Japanese and South Korean authorities pulled the US$ dollar sharply lower in overnight trading. The US$ dollar index has now traded low enough to isolate minute wave 3’s### upside completion into June’s high of 101.80. Today’s update reverts to count #1a’s pattern which shows minute wave 4 heading lower now, towards 99.20+/-. This is the idealised area to complete wave 4 within minor wave c.’s contracting-diagonal – should it break even lower, it’ll change to an expanding-diagonal pattern instead. The Euro/US$ has punched higher with the likelihood it too has finished minute wave 3’s decline last June at 1.1325 with wave 4 upside targets towards 1.1583+/-. Stlg/US$ has extended gains which now flips to count #1a’s forecast for minute... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
1st August 2026 - A sharp shift towards a steeper U.S. treasury yield curve following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged this week has raised concerns about the central bank's ###willingness to confront inflationary pressures. The drop in front-end yields, even as those on longer maturities climbed suggests growing scepticism the Fed will raise rates again, despite chairman Kevin Warsh's insistence that policymakers "will not hesitate to act ‘if price pressures fail to ease’. Meanwhile, the US10yr yield traded to another higher-high to 4.735 which was last traded back in Jan.’25, 18-months ago. Analysis expects an upside attempt towards 5.131+/- before completing primary wave B. Eurozone headline ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
1st August 2026 - We’ve seen currency intervention by Japanese and South Korean authorities that’s pulled the US$ dollar sharply lower in overnight trading – the weaker dollar would ordinarily push gold### strongly higher but it traded modestly up to 4119.96 again, only to fall back today, to 4022.12. Whilst the dollar was declining, US10yr treasury yields were on the rise again so it seems that gold is more sensitive to rising yields than the weakening dollar. That’s also the case for silver too. Both gold and silver are expected to head lower next week to finalise 3rd wave declines ahead of beginning 4th wave rallies. Iran has said it struck two tankers trying to... Read full summary in our latest report!
