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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

17th October 2018 - A scan across the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices reveals only three wave sequences within declines from recent highs, so far. Dimensionally, the third sequence### in the S&P and Dow ‘expands’ the price action relative to the first which is characteristic of 3rd wave activity within a developing five wave impulse. It’s necessary for a five wave pattern to develop from these September/October highs to corroborate the larger bearish picture which defines wave [c] within an expanding flat pattern unfolding lower from last January’s peaks. The Nasdaq’s same three price-swing decline is different though – each of the two declining sequences has... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

17th October 2018 - Wednesday’s FOMC ‘minutes’ showed the Fed’s committee members were unanimous in agreeing its decision to hike rates by another ¼ point. The US$ dollar index strengthened after### the announcement to 95.65 but from an Elliott Wave perspective, this was already factored into the equation because last week’s decline from 96.15 had just completed an intra-hourly five wave impulse downswing into Tuesday’s low of 94.79, allowing a corrective rally to begin. Wednesday’s closing level at 95.65 is approaching completion at the fib. 61.8% resistance – we expect the dollar to turn down around this area to continue August’s zig zag decline targeting levels towards 92.90+/-. Only a break above 96.15 would cause a revision and this is seen as a smaller probability. The Euro/US$ also completed an intra-hourly five wave impulse pattern within the advance from last week’s low of 1.1432 to Tuesday’s high of 1.1621. A three wave correction is also approaching downside completion at 1.1500+/-. Next upside targets ...

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

17th October 2018 - The Federal Reserve FOMC ‘minutes’ were released Wednesday afternoon/evening highlighting a unanimous verdict for the latest 0.25% interest rate hike which was not really unexpected. ###But more interesting was the fact that the minutes appeared to show less discussion around the prospects that a recession could be lurking around the corner. Don’t forget, that was more evident in the notes just a few months ago with a noted mood-change from Jerome Powell in later speeches. The Chairman has been very upbeat on the economy since, but perhaps they’re not so confident if the stock market takes another dive. The US10yr yield flipped slightly higher after the announcement... Read full summary in our latest report!


17th October 2018 - Gold has just traded into the fib. 38.2% retracement level of its preceding 3rd wave decline from April’s high at 1233.56 but this is unlikely to end August’s corrective 4th wave upswing.### As a 5-3-5 zig zag, wave ‘c’ has yet to unfold into a required five wave subdivision although we expect this completion by next week, latest end-month. August’s advance is timed to the US$ dollar index’s equivalent zig zag decline from 96.98. When it began the zig zag, wave ‘a’ was comparable to gold’s high for wave ‘a’ at 1214.57 but so far, wave ‘c’ declines are still a long way off. What does that mean for gold – could it stretch much higher than current upside targets for 1242.75? That’s possible, but basis ‘normal’ conditions, the proportionality within the zig zag upswing suggests a maximum area towards 1249.00+/-. Looking further ahead, downside... Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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