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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

11th December 2018 - Last Friday’s report noted that even a modest break of the S&P 500’s late-October low would not necessarily result in the negation of a more immediate, bullish recovery. Monday’s excitable### sell-off did just that – the S&P broke below 2603.54 to 2583.23 in a carry-over of bearish weekend sentiment but it ran higher immediately afterwards, following on through Tuesday’s session to 2674.35. This action maintains this year’s triangle pattern and a bullish bias, particularly given how the latest COT readings show a massive decline in net-speculative long-positioning. They’ve halved in just one week from 215,400 to 104,100 contracts, the largest one-week decline since last February when the markets were again under long-liquidation pressure – they eventually bottomed in March at 83,300. But that doesn’t pinpoint a low, the COT report simply indicates an important low is being approached. From an Elliott Wave perspective, rather, from a ratio/proportion perspective, the biggest negative for ending September’s decline into Monday’s low is the fact that its secondary zig zag sequence within the double pattern is disproportionately measured to the first – it’s far too small by comparison. This opens up other alternative routes for price-action to follow. One plausible alternate count relabels ... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

11th December 2018 - The US$ dollar index is reattempting the November highs of 97.69-97.53 for a third time. Dollar buying is going through ahead of the normal year-end shortage but also because investors are using the currency### as a safe-haven strategy amidst a nervous stock market sell-off. A break above would alter the progress of this year’s corrective advance where a final blow-off advance would be in progress towards 100.54+/- or even slightly higher. Somehow, this seems possible even though it would result in a disproportionate end to 2018’s zig zag upswing from last February’s low. But it would ... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

11th December 2018 - There’s no heading back towards the October/November highs for the ten-year treasury yield. The damage has been done, yields are trending lower now. So far, the decline from the ‘orthodox’ US10yr yield### high of 3.251 has only unfolded into a three wave sequence but importantly, the third sequence proportionately larger than the first which means it is developing into a five wave impulse pattern – this would confirm the larger downswing that has begun cycle wave B’s correction. Looking ahead several months, interim downside targets are towards 2.460+/- (currently 2.876) but... Read full summary in our latest report!


11th December 2018 - The US$ dollar has attracted tiers of safe-haven buying over the last several days as U.S. stock markets remain in a state of heightened anxiety over fears of a global economic recession. Should the dollar index ###break its October/November high above 97.69, then it would trigger a more direct route towards completing this year’s corrective zig zag upswing that began last February towards minimum 100.54+/-. Given that gold and silver have both been engaged in counter-trend rallies since August/September, a sudden surge higher for the dollar at this precise juncture would almost certainly pull prices lower as their final sequence of declines for 2018. Gold would... Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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