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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

22nd June 2019 - The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones (DJIA) have both broken above the early-May highs, isolating the preceding May-June downswing as a corrective zig zag pattern. Ordinarily, this would confirm a new 3rd wave uptrend in progress, but that doesn’t correlate to the pattern development in several Emerging Market, Asian indices ###and a good few commodities too. The MSCI EM index is set to resume 2018’s corrective zig zag downswing from the 1278.53 high resulting in a break below last October’s low of 929.90 over the next few months. The very same pattern is unfolding in the Hang Seng and the iShares China Large-Cap index. The Shanghai Composite is also bearish. Japan’s Nikkei began a zig zag downswing from May’s high with wave ‘b’ approaching upside levels but missing wave ‘c’ declines. And then there’s Copper – 2018’s corrective double zig zag remains incomplete and looking across to Crude/Brent oil, those two are engaged in primary degree zig zag downswings… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

22nd June 2019 - The US$ dollar index continued last week’s declines through Friday’s session ending just off the lows at 96.21. This was entirely expected basis the five wave declining diagonal pattern that is still unfolding from the April (orthodox) high of 98.33 – downside targets remain towards 95.46+/- which is the idealised area at which the larger expanding ###flat pattern ends March’s correction. Although the dollar is currently being driven lower by heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July’s meeting, Elliott Wave analysis simply interprets this as expectant thinking rather than reality. Yes, the Federal Reserve could cut rates -0.25% per cent but the dollar may have already finished its decline by then. A short-term upside rally is expected this coming week before further declines later. One other currency pair is already indicating it’s ended its corrective downswing… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

22nd June 2019 - The dollar was sold off heavily last week as the market began to price-in an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting in July. Interestingly, the US10yr yield held above Thursday’s low of 1.971% and even traded higher Friday to 2.068 even though currency traders were still selling the dollar. This suggests some short-term bullish### divergence – the US$ dollar index is attempting to complete a 3rd wave decline towards 95.80+/- and seems in a hurry to do so, this coming week which would then open the way for a deep 4th wave upswing, following treasury yields higher as they also develop into a minor degree 4th wave rally targeting levels towards 2.184+/- prior to resuming its downtrend. This correction which began… Read full summary in our latest report!


22nd June 2019 - Gold burst higher in overnight trading as the markets awakened to the fact that President Trump was close to ordering a military retaliatory strike against Iran for shooting down its drone over the Gulf Straits. Prices traded up to 1408.30 before declining rapidly in the minutes that followed, into an intra-hourly five wave pattern ###to 1383.20. This is confirming gold’s intermediate 3rd wave advance from 1180.80 has completed with a 4th wave retracement downswing already underway targeting levels towards 1372.50+/- and perhaps to 1351.00+/-. A subsequent 5th wave is currently projected towards 1426.20+/- but it could do more depending on the depth of the current 4th wave retracement. Interestingly, silver has already fulfilled its minimum upside objective for ending its counter-trend rally that began from the late-May low of 14.29 into Friday’s high of 15.56. This is labelled as ending a 2nd wave within a much larger, declining five wave diagonal pattern that began from last February’s high of 16.22. Turing bearish now is quite a leap of faith especially since the US$ dollar index hasn’t yet traded to downside targets of 95.46+/-. But silver’s rally from 14.29 to 15.56 contains a triangle within the zig zag which asserts its pattern credibility. There is one major currency pair that is showing a… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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