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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

23rd September 2023 - The outlook for major stock indices remains bearish having completed mid-August, 2nd wave counter-trend rallies last week with this week’s declines adding further confirmation. The US$ dollar index has been running higher since July, the exact inverse ###time when stocks formed peaks – meanwhile, treasury yields are contrarianly set to form important highs next week, then turning lower as bond traders switch to safe-haven buying – commodities like Copper and Crude oil are approaching secondary highs and are soon to resume lower. The backdrop to these declines seems obvious – the Fed’s higher-rates-for-longer is the bearish driver and yet large asset managers are still largely unaware of the downside risks that are accumulating. In the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, 74% per cent of respondents say either a soft landing or no landing at all. That’s a 180 degree switch from major bearishness that existed a year ago, contrarianly, a fine time for a top in stocks. Shorter-term, the benchmark S&P 500 is engaged in a 4th wave expanding flat correction that began earlier this morning (Friday), continuing into the close – an upside rally towards 4412.00+/- to max. 4419.00+/- is expected to complete…Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

23rd September 2023 - The aftermath of Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve statement has seen stock markets lower and the US$ dollar index (slightly) higher. The negative correlation with stocks and the dollar is expected to remain constant – an examination of short-term### stock indices suggests today’s rally will end Monday, followed by a 5th wave decline ending later into the session but then a more durational counter-trend upswing developing across the remainder of the week. If correct, the US$ dollar index would inversely mirror these price-swings by initially holding firm around current levels of 105.78+/- or perhaps slightly higher through Monday’s early-session but as stocks reverse higher once 5th waves down have completed, so the dollar index begins a counter-trend downswing as minor wave iv. four. For the Euro/US$, this means forming a near-term low towards 1.0565+/- max. 1.0470+/- but then beginning a 4th wave corrective upswing targeting min. 1.0788+/-. Stlg/US$ is approaching similar interim support around 1.2192+/- but should this be exceeded, it could stretch as low as 1.1803+/-. US$/Yen is testing overhead resistance at 148.40+/- with a hint the Bank of Japan could be ready to intervene. This correlates to a top in treasury yields. US$/CAD is engaged…Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

23rd September 2023 - Markets are still contemplating the consequences of Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve commentary especially since major fund managers are now expecting sticky inflation/hawkish central banks policies as the biggest ‘tail risk’ (40%) according to the### latest fund manager survey from Bank of America. About 60% per cent of the survey said the Fed was about to announce a terminal rate peak, but that’s not the case whilst 74% say the 1st Fed cut would occur in Q2 '24 or H2 '24 which again is not the case as indicated by the Fed last Wednesday. It tells us a little about what sentiment looks like – it may suggest the US10yr yield gains since Wednesday has been caused by long-bond liquidation – if so, the yield is about to end April’s zig zag run higher from 3.257 towards max. 4.575+/- and now turn lower. The latest Eurozone…Read full summary in our latest report!


23rd September 2023 - Gold’s relationship to the US$ dollar remains constant with negative-correlation as the main driver. The US$ dollar index is still in a five wave impulse uptrend from July’s low with incomplete targets over the next few months. This inversely correlates### to gold’s corrective downswing that began intermediate wave (2) from May’s high of 2061.00. The dollar is approaching a 3rd wave high this week with a temporary pullback lower as a 4th wave that will allow gold to dig a little deeper into its counter-trend 2nd wave rally that began from either August’s or the previous week’s lows. Silver’s corresponding 2nd wave rally from the previous week’s low of 22.30 is expected to rally towards 23.90+/- but could extend next week towards 24.44+/- before resuming lower. Crude oil is approaching the upside completion of primary wave B’s expanding flat rally from December’s low of 70.08 although a top…Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".