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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

16th February 2019 - The S&P 500 is attempting upside targets of 2773.00+/- at this very moment, into Friday’s late-session. This defines the completion of December’s five wave impulse uptrend where its 1st wave is extended by a fib. 161.8% ratio. Equivalent upside targets are being approached across-the-board, including the Dow, Russell and the Nasdaq 100. This### action is being fuelled by increasing optimism that the U.S./China trade talks are inching towards some resolution. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said negotiators had ‘productive meetings’ in a tweet on Friday. President Trump has already said that he’s prepared to delay the increase in import tariffs by up to 60 days if talks appear to be progressing in the right direction, so that’s very bullish, right? Well, logically it is, although from an Elliott Wave perspective, the alarm bells are ringing pretty loud right now. December’s uptrend is coming to an end, but what could trigger a corrective downswing? Thursday’s batch of U.S. economic data… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

16th February 2019 - The US$ dollar index nudged twice above the 97.19 level to 97.36 which defined the completion of a five wave impulse uptrend that began from the late-January low of 95.17. But in doing so, it developed into a zig zag pattern which means Friday’s late sell-off begins the final sequence of an expanding flat correction. Now this supports the idea### that January’s larger three price-swing advance from 95.03 is a bullish 1-2-1 sequence rather than a corrective zig zag. So this latest short-term action is actually hinting the dollar is set to work lower into the coming week, but once the expanding flat has ended, it signals a much stronger upside acceleration afterwards. That’s important too for the Euro/US$ - last week’s momentary dip below the orthodox low of 1.1257 which ended the impulse downswing from 1.1515 and a larger three price-swings from… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

16th February 2019 - The latest batch of U.S. economic data published last Thursday showed inherent weakness in three key areas. January’s Producer Prices were forecast to come in at 0.2% per cent but came through down -0.1% per cent. Even worse was December’s Retail Sales figures – expectations were at 0.1% per cent but came in down -1.2% per cent, the ###sharpest decline since September 2009. And finally, November’s Business Inventories were expected 0.2% but came in at -0.1% per cent. These were partially offset by Friday’s Empire State Mfg Survey which was expected at 7.6 but came through at 8.8 but it was too late – the market sold the US$ dollar off late-session although the US10yr yield seemed to take it all in its stride, hardly budging to close unchanged at 2.663%. With U.S./European and Asian stock markets due to begin a deep corrective… Read full summary in our latest report!


16th February 2019 - Precious metals tried to pull lower into meaningful counter-trend declines over the last couple of weeks but the tipping point came through Friday’s US$ dollar decline into the late-session. Once the dollar found overhead resistance too much to break, then trading sharply lower afterwards, gold and silver took their cue to finish 4th wave### corrections and build higher into the beginning of 5th wave advances to higher-highs. Gold is still a long way from completing a larger five wave impulse pattern from its August low, but it’s now staging the final sequence of its 3rd-of-3rd wave. Two upside targets are measured – the first to 1345.40+/- and the next to 1373.00+/-. Silver has also stabilised above last week’s low of 15.50 and is now pushing higher. This latest action is cementing the 15.50 low as ending its 4th wave within November’s five wave impulse uptrend. Because it’s uptrend began three months later than gold’s and because gold necessitates two higher-highs to develop before ending its impulse uptrend, it’s possible that silver will unfold its 4th wave into a more complex pattern where is breaks momentarily… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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