ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
22nd August 2026 - A big test awaits financial markets next week. The failure of U.S. treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s ###attempt at stemming recent rises in long-dated interest rates has resulted in another strong push higher in both US30yr and US10yr yields, back to recent 19-year highs – the announcement has pulled the US$ dollar lower but it’s now testing important support that can reverse next week – gold and silver are simultaneously testing upside resistance that can turn prices sharply lower again. Exactly what tips these recent trends around is unknown, although an educated guess would be interest rates continuing sharply higher, strengthening the dollar in the process. That probably means more declines in the major indices except for some short-term support being found into last Thursday’s session... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
22nd August 2026 - The US$ dollar index has edged a little lower over the last couple of days but is now testing absolute downside limits for finishing minute wave 4’s correction that began from the late-June high of ###101.80. Today’s low at 98.56 is a strong candidate for finishing this correction with a heightened probability of a reversal taking place early next week that stabilises the dollar but also sending it trending higher over the next couple of months to new highs for this year. A corresponding corrective rally is testing upside resistance for the Euro/US$ and Stlg/US$ with reversal declines expected next week. US$/Yen remains in an upward..Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
22nd August 2026 - U.S. long-term government bonds suffered a fresh wave of selling today as Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention### to prop up the market failed to soothe investor jitters. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds was up 0.06 percentage points at 5.24% per cent, reversing most of the -0.09 percentage point fall that followed a Treasury announcement on Wednesday that it would ‘at least double’ to $4bn or more, its purchases of securities maturing in 10 to 30 years. We’d expected a short-term correction that pulls the US10yr yield a little lower towards 4.558+/- even before the treasury announcement, but markets remain unconvinced in the strategy which is why yields... Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
22nd August 2026 - It’s crunch time for gold – prices are now trading into maximum upside targets for the completion of minute wave 4’s correction that began from the end-June low of 3944.81. This rally has mirrored### the inverse decline in the US$ dollar index which itself has unfolded into a downward correction that began end-June and approaching completion into tonight’s levels – that can’t be coincidence! For gold, a reversal decline is imminent – that would put gold on-track to reverse the last month’s gains, even trading below the end-June low by October. It’s a similar pattern for silver which is completing minute wave 4’s rally from 55.62 into tonight’s high of 70.00+/- which downside risk of wave 5 beginning its next decline. Crude oil is ... Read full summary in our latest report!
