ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
8th September 2018 - It’s a very mixed world for global stock markets at the moment with two prevailing forces combatting for supremacy. There’s no doubt that U.S. indices are at important inflection levels and what they do next will ultimately determine their course ###and direction for the remainder of this year. Other global indices are hinting of some nearby support despite Thursday’s tech sell-off in the Nasdaq 100. Reports of a -0.6% per cent decline in the MSCI Emerging Market index with an accumulated -20% decline this year was again the focus of portfolio managers – but what was not reported was the fact that the EEM iShares ETF hit an exact fib. 61.8% extension level of January/February’s initial decline into the mid-August low of 41.13 – and held! Also, the Eurostoxx Banks index has just ended a five wave impulse downswing that began from January’s high ending into this week’s low at 103.88. A counter-trend rally … Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
8th September 2018 - The US$ dollar index has continued lower over the last couple of days, moving away from this week’s high of 95.73 which is corroborating the impact of ending a shorter-term upswing but now heading lower again. The index has now traded down to 94.94 which is reducing the probability it could extend the end-August rally any further than### it has already. The next stage of the dollar’s decline is the final sequence within a zig zag correction that began from August’s high of 96.98 – downside targets remain towards 93.48-92.90+/-. The equivalent Euro/US$ zig zag upswing from August’s low of 1.1301 is set to continue now as minor wave c. having ended a temporary pullback ending wave b. earlier this week at 1.1530. Upside targets for minor wave c. remain towards 1.1901-1.2010+/-. Stlg/US$ is engaged in a corrective zig zag upside rally from its mid-August low of 1.2662 – targets are towards 1.3190-255+/- but then declining afterwards to 1.2374+/- as a diagonal pattern unwinds from the earlier June high of 1.3473. US$/Yen has begun the third stage of an expanding flat correction that originated from May’s… Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
8th September 2018 - Markets remain jitterish over the impact of additional trade sanctions between the U.S. and China. Beijing officials said that China will be forced to retaliate if the United States implements new tariff measures, China’s Commerce Ministry warned### on Thursday. Meanwhile, the latest batch of economic data from the U.S. was, well, mixed. The August figure of the ISM services index rose to 58.5 from 55.7 in July and 59.1 in June but above estimates. Ahead of Friday’s non-farm-payroll which are expected in the region of 195,000, up from 157k last month, Thursday’s ADP number was 163k but lower than consensus levels of 182k. August’s PMI services figure came through lower than estimates at 54.8 (55.2). The US10yr yield declined from a high of 2.915… Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
8th September 2018 - Commodities have declined this year, but particularly base and precious metals, dragged lower by the US$ dollar’s recovery following last year’s -15% decline and disruptions over supplies caused by threatening trade wars. The US$ dollar remains key though – it ended an initial phase of strength### into August’s high and is already trading lower into a correction which is only half-way to completion. This period of dollar weakness is helping to lift copper higher also gold and silver. The dollar is expected to decline by another -2.5% per cent over the coming weeks. Gold is projected higher, towards 1242.75+/- during this period but this is only a 4th wave rally within a five wave declining impulse pattern that began from January’s high. Silver has traded and tested ultimate downside targets of 14.00+/- which defines the limit for ending its counter-trend that began from the August ’16 high of 20.78. But can it hold this support… Read full summary in our latest report!
