ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
18th January 2017 - U.S. and European stock markets and all those locked into positive-correlations began short-term counter-trend declines from the late-December/early-January highs. ###There’s no question that these are simply corrections within the prevailing, dominant uptrend that began last year because the S&P, Dow Jones (DJIA) and small-cap Russell indices have each subdivided into overlapping sequences. The only question is whether these corrections are ending now or could extend a little lower. Some fib-price-ratio discrepancies are found in measuring these declines so whilst this exists, there is always potential for the markets to stretch a little lower before resuming the larger uptrend. The Nasdaq 100 is a case study of short-term divergence because... Read full summary in our latest report!
18th January 2017 - The US$ dollar has edged lower against the major G4 currencies over the last few days but the US$ dollar index’s latest attempt towards downside targets at 99.78+/- may be nearing the end of its counter-trend from January’s high. ###Confirming the completion of this counter-trend pattern is probably the most important event so far this year. This next test will determine whether the US$ dollar stages an additional advance to new 15-year highs or has otherwise already ended its 8-year upswing into the Jan. 3rd high of 103.82. We assess the probability that it will turn back higher – this certainly fits the negative-correlation with precious metals ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
18th January 2017 - U.S. Industrial Production climbed 0.8% in December, the largest percentage rise since November 2014 which underlines the pick-up in overall economic activity. Earlier ###last month, gains in the ISM’s production index, manufacturing payrolls and an increase in hours worked by production workers adds to the overall upbeat picture. In such circumstances, the US10yr yield would be expected to stage another leg to upside gains, but in fact the opposite has been true since reaching an interim peak last December at 2.641%. This high watermark ended a... Read full summary in our latest report!
18th January 2017 - The latest COT reports show that investors are finally returning to buy gold and silver. The net speculative long positions in gold are up 8,325 to 54,399 contracts whilst silver is higher by 2,786 to 46,169 contracts. Isn’t it ironic that this latest### pick up features just about the same time that gold and silver are ending their five wave impulse advancing patterns from December’s lows. That may be of no concern to the hedge fund that is playing the medium-term uptrend, but it is another indication of short-term sentiment extremes. Precious metals continue to trade negatively with the US$ dollar – the dollar index is just finishing a corrective decline from January’s high and is preparing to turn back higher – no wonder gold and silver are set to begin a corresponding counter-trend decline. The good news is that larger uptrends...Read full summary in our latest report!