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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

5th June 2020 - Global stock markets were already trading at post-coronavirus highs this time last week when U.S. President Trump delivered his announcement that his administration would take punitive### steps to punish China over its implementation of new security laws for Hong Kong. But markets shrugged this off and sighed relief as trading resumed last Monday, with continued gains through this last week. Overhead resistance levels were initially exceeded, then stretched higher but the gains across large and small-cap indices, gains in Europe too were not matched by an underperforming Nasdaq 100. That’s a little strange because the Nasdaq has led the recovery higher over the last couple of months - but it becomes clear what’s happened - sector rotation. In recent sentiment surveys, 68% per cent of fund managers have seen March’s advances as simply counter-trend rallies – they’ve been mostly sidelined, up until this week when fear of missing out has triggered buying in underperforming sectors, financial, industrials and consumer discretionary stocks. That’s helped the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones (DJIA) to catch up whilst the Nasdaq 100 has tended to lose … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

5th June 2020 - The US$ dollar index broke below key support levels over the last week which is confirming the next stage of the dollar’s 7.8-year cycle downtrend has begun to accelerate. The March high of ###102.99 was already labelled as ending a 2-year, 2nd wave correction but there was still a lingering possibility of a shorter-term rally before the next declines were to accelerate – but basis last week’s declines, that short-term rally is no longer possible. The best the dollar can hope for is a counter-trend rally towards 97.99+/- before resuming lower. Looking much further ahead, downside targets to complete a five wave impulse pattern from March’s high are measured towards 91.15+/- although this may take several months to get there … Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

5th June 2020 - The US10yr yield broke overhead resistance levels late last week confirming the next stage of its new multi-year uptrend is already underway. The risk-on sentiment pulled in a lot of money### into stocks last week, a little late because sentiment has been so bearish prior to this, but optimism is returning. The US10yr yield advance is causing the dollar yield curve to steepen dramatically as the Federal Reserve maintain low interest rates at the short-end. And that steepening is likely to continue basis last week’s ten-year yield uptrend. There’s formidable resistance at the post-coronavirus high traded last March around 1.269% and measuring shorter-term price development, nearby targets are smack into this area, at 1.247+/-. But overall, we expect rising inflationary pressures, rising yields to continue even as there still exists … Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

5th June 2020 - Gold traded lower late last week as fund managers chased stock markets higher in a binge of risk-on strategies. Prices declined to 1670.49 but this wasn’t quite enough to confirm a### major high has already ended the entire five wave impulse uptrend that began gold’s primary wave 3 advance from the Aug.’18 low of 1160.24. It held above support of 1643.86 which means gold could still stage one additional but final advance to a modest higher-high, towards 1840.00+/-. But its chances of extending higher are rapidly deteriorating. The more industrial precious metals, Platinum and Silver have both ended five wave impulse uptrends that began from the March lows and are already beginning counter-trend declines which are expected to be deep and lasting the next few months. The next move in stock markets will determine if gold, platinum and silver will rally a little higher, or simply continuing downside acceleration. Crude oil traded ... Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES