ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
25th August 2016 - As delegates begin arriving in Jackson Hole, kicking off the two-day annual gathering of central bankers and economists, two prominent Federal Bank governors treat us to their latest insights on monetary policy. During an interview with ###news-agency CNBC on Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan commented that the case for a rate increase in the not-so-distant future is strengthening. This was backed up by Kansas City’s Fed President Ester George through an interview with Bloomberg radio where she stated that ‘it’s time to move’, referring to a more immediate rate hike. The big question is whether an immediate rate hike of +0.25% per cent would be important for the market? Pragmatically, it shouldn’t be an economic breaker... Read full summary in our latest report!
25th August 2016 - If recent U.S. economic data is anything to go by, the US$ dollar index should be surging ahead. Tuesday’s New Home Sales came in better-than-expected at 654k, Durable Goods Orders climbed to 4.4% in July, the### best figure in months and reversing the slide from earlier this year. The jobs market is definitely robust with the latest weekly claims holding their own at 261k whilst the latest Purchasing Managers' Index remains at 50.9. So why is the US$ dollar index trading down from last month’s highs? It seems that it’s all about the Fed and its timing for the next interest rate hike. The dollar index began its... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
25th August 2016 - Interest rates are the most sensitive instrument to the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers and economists as traders and analysts look on from a distance, attempting to glean some insights on when, not if, the next### Fed rate hike occurs. Judging by the way the US10yr yield is trading, we wouldn’t be at all surprised if some hints are made public, indicating a hike in September’s meeting. Fed Fund futures gives a hike a 50:50 probability in December, but the odds drop away for... Read full summary in our latest report!
25th August 2016 - Our overall short-term bias for gold has been bearish ever since it traded into an overlapping sequence into the early-July high of 1375.27. Preferential ###counts label this high as ending intermediate wave (B), the second sequence in a larger, developing expanding flat corrective pattern. The third sequence requires more downside than what has already traded, a return to the end-May low is a minimum requirement. But its reluctance to accelerate downwards might yet offer some reprieve for a sudden but temporary spurt higher. The odds are against it though. The US$ dollar is pitching to turn around and head back higher following its completion of a counter-trend... Read full summary in our latest report!