ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
8th August 2020 - U.S. stock markets held onto recent gains through to Friday’s close although Europe’s major indices were down by -8.8% per cent earlier this week before rallying higher. This dislocation is only short-term though – the S&P and Nasdaq have been relative outperformers since the mid-June rallies began but are fast approaching### terminal highs. Whilst these stretch higher in the approach to finishing five wave uptrends from March’s lows, European indices rally into counter-trends prior to resuming their larger corrective downswings that are already underway. It’s noticeable that last week’s rallies… Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
8th August 2020 - The US$ dollar has been trading over the last couple of weeks into an oversold condition measured by the latest COT net speculative positioning reports. Investment bank Morgan Stanley said Friday that the dollar was at its most oversold level for over 40-years! - against the Euro currency, Friday’s COT report shows a jump in### long-positioning of 180,600 contracts, a multi-year high that even exceeds the levels of 148,700 that occurred when the Euro/US$ was trading at its peak of primary wave 1 at 1.2556 back in Feb.’18. All this suggests a counter-trend correction is about to begin. It’s difficult to see how that could translate into a larger dip for Stlg/US$ because it has singularly advanced from the late-June (secondary) … Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
8th August 2020 - Friday’s latest monthly U.S. non-farm-payroll employment numbers came through at 1.763 million in July as the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%. This was better than consensus forecasts of 1.48 million and 10.6% which tended to lift the US10yr yield higher on the day from 0.517 to 0.574 closing at 0.558%. But overall, this hasn’t### had any significant effect on the downtrend of intermediate wave (C)’s five wave decline that began from June’s reaction high of 0.952 – downside targets remain towards 0.443%. We’ve just seen news that Republicans have turned down… Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
8th August 2020 - Gold’s recent exponential run higher that began from the mid-July price level of 1792.00 is typical of a 5th wave ‘extension’. Prior to this acceleration, intermediate wave (5)’s advance within the five wave uptrend of primary wave 3 from March’s low of 1451.45 was orderly, nothing unusual. But media hype plus analyst enthusiasm has created ###an investor stampede to buy at all costs. Friday’s overnight high of 2071.86 is an ‘overthrow’ of original upside targets of 2035.00+/- published in June ’18 – there are three degrees of trend measuring fib-price-ratios into the 2085.00+/- resistance area, just thirteen bucks from today’s high. It’s also worth noting that cycles peak in August/September then turn down for the remainder of the year. And to cap this off, Friday’s intra-hourly data is confirming the decline late-session to 2015.59 has unfolded into a five wave impulse pattern, heightening the probability that intermediate wave (5)’s extension wave has terminated primary wave 3’s uptrend. Silver’s advance from… Read full summary in our latest report!
