ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
24th September 2016 - Last Wednesday’s no-rate-hike announcement from the Federal Reserve has had the effect of a ‘stay of execution’. It has postponed what we see as an inevitable 2-3 month downside risk for global indices where declines begin a sizable double-digit correction. The benchmark S&P’s advance following the FOMC decision ###does have the potential to break above the August high, changing the existing three-wave advance from February’s low as a 1-2-1 sequence into a five-wave diagonal pattern but with limited upside objectives. To realise the diagonal, prices must continue more immediately higher without hesitation as its 5th wave develops into new record highs. The diagonal pattern means that each impulse sequence… Read full summary in our latest report!
24th September 2016 - The US$ dollar index had already stalled its advance from the early-September low of 94.47 even before the FOMC meeting announcement last Wednesday, conforming interest rates would remain unchanged. ###So it was no surprise to see the dollar extending declines from the 96.33 high set earlier in the day. This had the effect of delaying not negating the overall upside progress of the dollar’s advance from last May’s low. Some range-trending is set to continue over the coming week or two, unfolding into an Elliott Wave triangle pattern, but most of the immediate impact of weakness following the FOMC announcement has already dispersed. The dollar is on its way… Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
24th September 2016 - Last week’s FOMC decision to keep rates on hold has had the inevitable effect of pulling long-dated yields lower during the closing session on Friday. It has isolated a three wave zig zag upswing from the early-July### low of 1.316% for the US10yr yield, insodoing, confirming our original hypothesis that a long-term uptrend was not yet in progress. This of course has been a subject of debate. The deepening loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve and its inability to stimulate inflation or even a steady pick-up in economic… Read full summary in our latest report!
24th September 2016 - Most gold analysts are aware that current price levels are moving right into the apex of trend lines drawn from last year’s lows and from July’s existing highs. Resistance is at 1350.00+/- and support below the early September low of 1302.76. Breaking out either way is likely to see a spike in volatility### as intra-day trader’s jump on the momentum. So which way is it going to break? As things stand, our bearish preferential count could end up being postponed as last week’s action has pulled prices further away from what looks like the completion of a counter-trend decline into that 1302.76 low. But the debate on price direction doesn’t stop there. Should a break to the upside unfold, the next question is how far? Everyone is entitled to a guess, but what of reducing this into something more tangible, based on pattern… Read full summary in our latest report!