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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

16th August 2019 - Last week’s decline in the benchmark S&P 500 was consistent within its declining five wave diagonal pattern that began from the late-July high of 3029.50 (futures). It hit a temporary low Thursday, then began a counter-trend rally### Friday which is expected to continue this coming week, perhaps a reattempt to last week’s high at 2944.25. That certainly seems possible basis the small-cap Russell 2000 index. That declined into a succinct zig zag pattern from the previous week’s high into Thursday’s low of 1455.10 – that ended the second sequence of a developing horizontal flat pattern which now requires a retest back to last week’s high. But these are just short-term rallies within those declining diagonal patterns. U.S. indices are required to break marginally below last June’s lows in order to complete 2nd wave expanding flat corrections that began from the early-May highs. By contrast, European… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

16th August 2019 - The US$ dollar index remains in limbo, or at least, our observation of it is! So far, there’s an equal argument for both ongoing bullish and new bearish forecasts/wave counts. But fortunately, the complexity of the bullish count ###which has spluttered higher into several layers of 1-2’s means the cut-off levels to determine direction are not too far away. That makes the job of identifying the next major movement somewhat easier – so now we wait. Any immediate break above August’s high of 98.32 is bullish for the dollar, targeting original upside levels towards 102.79+/-, but any immediate break below the secondary retracement level of 96.67 would be bearish, confirming 2018’s zig zag upswing has already completed. We often wonder what… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

16th August 2019 - We’ve revamped downside targets for the US10yr yield having seen the US30yr bond break below the July ’16 low of 2.088% into new record lows earlier last week. And is won’t stop there – an incomplete five wave impulse### pattern from last November’s high of 3.464% (US30yr) means it can drop another 40bps before putting in a major low. For the US10yr yield, that translates into an eventual break below its July ’16 low of 1.316% towards 1.120%. Like the bond yield, the ten-year yield must decline from last October’s 3.262 high into a five wave impulse pattern before a new major uptrend can get underway. Thursday’s… Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

16th August 2019 - These are the gold headlines: Goldcorp founder holds firm on his call for $5,000 gold – ‘gold to rise to $1,650 by Q2 2020’ UOB private bank – Mainstay Capital says ‘there are reasons to own gold now’ – Deutsche Bank raises ###gold price targets to $1,575 and even to $1,700 – BoA/Merrill Lynch says ‘gold may hit $2,300 – UBS ‘gold to reach almost $1,700 next year’ – Cramer says ‘everyone should put 10% of their money in gold’ – TD Ameritrade posts ‘$2,000 price level a possibility for gold’. The reason for highlighting these expectations is to expose the high level of optimistic sentiment – where were these comments last year when gold was trading at $1160? Well, things were pretty bearish back then. Such bullish extremes are backed by the latest COT net-speculative positioning report – longs are at 292,500 contracts, back at levels of July/August ’16 when gold peaked at $1,375 then declining for several months to $1,123. It was back in June ’16, over three years ago that our Elliott Wave forecasts first projected gold into the future, testing the $1,523.29+/- level (see mid-year Commodities Part II 2016 video report). That day has arrived. How gold responds at this area, around… Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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