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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

22nd February 2024 - U.S. stock indices have been trading lower from last Friday’s secondary highs into intra-hourly five wave impulse patterns. Ahead of the tonight’s Federal Reserve minutes announcement and ###Nvidia’s earnings report, those short-term five wave impulse patterns were reaching optimum targets late-session – when the Fed’s minutes were released, prices held support and began to turn higher – meanwhile, Nvidia had sold-off as nervous longs shed positioning down into corrective targets of 667.00+/-. But this simply hit minute wave 4 targets, turning sharply higher afterwards to 742.00 although drifting later to 729.85. This is confirming Nvidia is now trending higher as minute wave 5 towards min. 781.75+/- max. 850.00+/-. For the S&P 500, the decline from the mid-month high is labelled as completing a fractal 1-2-1 pattern with another 2nd wave correction beginning tonight. The Nasdaq 100’s corresponding 1-2-1 pattern could also be a corrective zig zag because tonight’s low at 17372.75 ended ... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

22nd February 2024 - While Fed officials say they are confident the central bank's policy rate can be lowered later this year from the 5.25%-5.50% range maintained since July, the Jan. 31 policy statement was explicit ###about the need for ‘greater confidence’ in falling inflation before rate cuts can commence. Meanwhile, UBS has updated its predictions for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, moving the expected timing from May to June. Consequently, the broker now projects a total reduction of 75 basis points (bps) in interest rates for 2024, a decrease from its earlier estimate of 100 bps. The US$ dollar held nearby support levels at 103.79 Tuesday which completes a short-term double zig zag correction that began last week from 104.97 – the dollar is expected to now resume higher, the final sequence within December’s counter-trend rally, targeting 105.84+/-. The inverse ... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

22nd February 2024 - > The Federal Reserve released the ‘minutes’ from last month’s FOMC meeting revealing the bulk of policymakers were concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon, with### broad uncertainty about how long borrowing costs should remain at their current level. The minutes quoted ‘participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained’ to return inflation to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Whereas ‘most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy - only ‘a couple pointed to downside risks to the economy associated with maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long’. The market has already gone some way in pricing-out some interest rate cuts for this year, from 150bps cut to 100bps with some investment banks now saying they only expect the first... Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

22nd February 2024 - Precious metals are inversely trading in negative-correlation with the US$ dollar and with tonight’s minutes from the Federal Reserve confirming rates will remain ‘higher-for-longer’,### so the dollar remained steady whilst gold, silver and platinum all headed a little lower. This is not entirely unexpected though – the dollar index is set to push higher in one final advancing sequence within the corrective rally that began from end-December’s low – this corresponds to one final decline for gold and silver, towards 1950.30+/- and 21.21+/- respectively. This positions well for a huge uptrend afterwards, beginning sometime next month. Gold miners are also heading for simultaneous lows. Crude oil has battled higher, surmounting China’s economic headwinds which have prevented it from accelerative gains since beginning a counter-trend rally from December’s low of 67.71. A turn higher tonight is confirming just one additional advance unfolding over the next week towards 80.50+/- before completing intermediate wave (4). Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES