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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

3rd December 2016 - The attention of traders and investors alike has turned towards Italy’s up-coming referendum vote that gets underway this Sunday. With Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s government trailing ###the right-wing opposition, the markets are currently warning of another sharp sell-off in the Italian Banking industry should Renzi lose out. He has told the media that a vote to block his plans to streamline the Senate would result in his resignation. What will our major indices look like Monday morning? Activity over the last week offers some pointers – outperforming U.S. indices following Donald Trump’s election result have lost their upside momentum and in most cases, have begun to turn lower from important overhead resistance levels. Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

3rd December 2016 - The US$ dollar eased off from recent highs of 102.05 even though Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls came through healthily above forecasts at 178,000. Sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish though as investors launch### themselves into long-dollar positioning following the post-Trump-election win with macroeconomic strategies that benefit from a U.S.-centric outperformance of its peers. Despite this, it was interesting to see how this latest surge in the dollar has taken a pause just above the dual highs of March and December ’15, then decline below these levels as it did over the last few trading days. This is not indicative of inherent strength. Normally, on the third occasion of a break-out of resistance, a more sustained advance takes off. Should the US$ dollar index fall back further during the coming week as we suspect… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

3rd December 2016 - The European bond markets have climbed a wall of worry this week as traders prepare for fallout in expectation of Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi losing his constitutional referendum vote that begins this Sunday. At one point last week, Europe’s safe-haven benchmark, the DE10yr yield### ran higher as if to fool everyone into thinking it was following US treasury yields higher. But the DE05yr Bobl yield offered supportive evidence that this upswing would fade with yields turning lower again to begin a more sustained decline – after all, this year’s yield advance has definitively unfolded into a typical counter-trend pattern, Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

3rd December 2016 - Precious metals have formed a near-term base at last week’s lows which, if nothing else, provides some guarantee (*~!!) of an upside recovery underway. Whether this ends gold’s entire corrective decline from the July high of 1375.27 remains in question. We believe not, with preferential### counts labelling this action as an incomplete double zig zag pattern, (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C). Last week’s low at 1161.05 completed wave (A) within the secondary zig zag sequence so this means the current upside rally is simply another corrective sequence, wave (B). Gold’s decline to 1161.05 is already a deep correction when compared to primary wave 1’s preceding advance from the Dec.’15 low so from an unleveraged basis, provides a clear opportunity to begin scale-down buying. After all, this is a much better place to buy when compared to July’s high. Silver’s counter-trend has also traded down to the fib. 61.8% retracement…Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

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