ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
5th October 2024 - U.S. indices flipped unexpectedly higher today following the big jump in U.S. non-farm-payrolls – market consensus expectations of 132,500 were easily exceeded to 254,000 – the US$ dollar extended higher as did US10yr treasury yields with ###the assumption that strong jobs growth could unwind some expectancy for a 25bps basis point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. You’d think this would send stock markets lower, but the reality was the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 jumped higher. As they did, prices then went into reverse, declining below where they started, only to lift higher again late-session, returning back to the session’s highs. This has caused a deeper upside correction to the previous week’s zig zag declines that ended into Wednesday’s lows. These lows are too small to be considered as completing the entirety of the correction to September’s preceding five wave impulse uptrend that ended the previous week – so this suggests more downside as a ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
5th October 2024 - The US$ dollar index has unfolded from the previous week’s low of 100.15 into a five wave impulse pattern, finishing tonight around the 102.68 area. This is too far to consider this being a counter-trend 4th wave as shown in recent updates### but it is consistent with alternate count #2 which otherwise depicts the 100.15 low as completing wave b within a developing a-b-c expanding flat pattern for minor wave ii. two with wave c now engaged to the upside. This means wave c will now unfold back towards the April high of 106.51+/-. Basis tonight’s closing levels, that’s another +4% per cent higher. An inverse but corresponding decline as wave c for the Euro/US$ projects a return back to April’s low of 1.0601+/-. For Stlg/US$, a decline as wave c returns to April’s low of 1.2299+/-. US$/Yen has continued higher today, as US$ dollar strength was underpinned by today’s stronger-than-expected non-farm-payrolls that came through at 254,000, higher than consensus estimates of only 132.5k – it traded up to 148.80 consistent with upside targets to complete an expanding flat pattern towards 151.25+/-. US$/CAD has promoted count #2 to preferential count #1 which has upside targets of 1.4042+/- for …. Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
5th October 2024 - The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower. The monthly non-farm- payrolls surged by 254,000, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than### consensus estimates of 132,500 – the unemployment rate was lower by a tenth of a point, from 4.2% to 4.1% per cent. The implications were clear – this unwound some of the rate cut expectancy with the US10yr yield jumping higher from 3.833 to tonight’s high of 3.983. Earlier this week, we heard that Eurozone inflation dipped below 2.0% for the first time since mid-2021, reinforcing an already solid case for a European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates later this month. Despite this really bullish news for European Bund markets, it seems the benchmark DE10yr yield is unable to break from U.S. treasury influence…. Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
5th October 2024 - Gold traded erratically around this afternoon’s U.S. non-farm-payroll data which came through higher than consensus expectations of 132,500 at 254,000. That sent the US$ dollar higher, the US10yr yield higher on expectations the Fed may be ###more cautious about cutting rates at its next meeting – somehow, the stock market traded higher too! A stronger US$ dollar is obviously bearish for gold, as are interest rates which explains why gold rallied momentarily to a high of 2670.14 before selling-off sharply afterwards to 2632.16 before closing at 2653.25. Prices are expected lower during the next month - corresponding corrections are also expected for the GDX, Newmont Mining, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle and AngloGold Ashanti (see monthly edition of the Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook report for analysis, commentary/video). Silver momentarily popped higher to 32.99 but is still finishing August’s zig zag rally with downside expected during the next month. The Middle East conflict has persisted with Iran attacking Israel in retaliation and now … Read full summary in our latest report!
