ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
16th February 2019 - The S&P 500 is attempting upside targets of 2773.00+/- at this very moment, into Friday’s late-session. This defines the completion of December’s five wave impulse uptrend where its 1st wave is extended by a fib. 161.8% ratio. Equivalent upside targets are being approached across-the-board, including the Dow, Russell and the Nasdaq 100. This### action is being fuelled by increasing optimism that the U.S./China trade talks are inching towards some resolution. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said negotiators had ‘productive meetings’ in a tweet on Friday. President Trump has already said that he’s prepared to delay the increase in import tariffs by up to 60 days if talks appear to be progressing in the right direction, so that’s very bullish, right? Well, logically it is, although from an Elliott Wave perspective, the alarm bells are ringing pretty loud right now. December’s uptrend is coming to an end, but what could trigger a corrective downswing? Thursday’s batch of U.S. economic data… Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
16th February 2019 - The US$ dollar index nudged twice above the 97.19 level to 97.36 which defined the completion of a five wave impulse uptrend that began from the late-January low of 95.17. But in doing so, it developed into a zig zag pattern which means Friday’s late sell-off begins the final sequence of an expanding flat correction. Now this supports the idea### that January’s larger three price-swing advance from 95.03 is a bullish 1-2-1 sequence rather than a corrective zig zag. So this latest short-term action is actually hinting the dollar is set to work lower into the coming week, but once the expanding flat has ended, it signals a much stronger upside acceleration afterwards. That’s important too for the Euro/US$ - last week’s momentary dip below the orthodox low of 1.1257 which ended the impulse downswing from 1.1515 and a larger three price-swings from… Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
16th February 2019 - The latest batch of U.S. economic data published last Thursday showed inherent weakness in three key areas. January’s Producer Prices were forecast to come in at 0.2% per cent but came through down -0.1% per cent. Even worse was December’s Retail Sales figures – expectations were at 0.1% per cent but came in down -1.2% per cent, the ###sharpest decline since September 2009. And finally, November’s Business Inventories were expected 0.2% but came in at -0.1% per cent. These were partially offset by Friday’s Empire State Mfg Survey which was expected at 7.6 but came through at 8.8 but it was too late – the market sold the US$ dollar off late-session although the US10yr yield seemed to take it all in its stride, hardly budging to close unchanged at 2.663%. With U.S./European and Asian stock markets due to begin a deep corrective… Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
16th February 2019 - Precious metals tried to pull lower into meaningful counter-trend declines over the last couple of weeks but the tipping point came through Friday’s US$ dollar decline into the late-session. Once the dollar found overhead resistance too much to break, then trading sharply lower afterwards, gold and silver took their cue to finish 4th wave### corrections and build higher into the beginning of 5th wave advances to higher-highs. Gold is still a long way from completing a larger five wave impulse pattern from its August low, but it’s now staging the final sequence of its 3rd-of-3rd wave. Two upside targets are measured – the first to 1345.40+/- and the next to 1373.00+/-. Silver has also stabilised above last week’s low of 15.50 and is now pushing higher. This latest action is cementing the 15.50 low as ending its 4th wave within November’s five wave impulse uptrend. Because it’s uptrend began three months later than gold’s and because gold necessitates two higher-highs to develop before ending its impulse uptrend, it’s possible that silver will unfold its 4th wave into a more complex pattern where is breaks momentarily… Read full summary in our latest report!
