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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

8th April 2020 - The quarterly earnings season begins next week with Q1 numbers expected to be -20% lower than the previous quarter although some economists are more optimistic saying the U.S. economy ###was still on an upward trajectory before the coronavirus pandemic hit industry and commerce. But that hasn’t stopped many from predicting the direst of outlooks for the remainder of this year. Bond fund PIMCO said Wednesday that U.S. GDP growth would contract by 30% per cent in the second quarter and 5% per cent overall for 2020. This echoes similar declines from mainstream economists. Several market analysts are also downbeat in their assessments going forward - Société Générale said investor hopes are based solely on monetary and fiscal stimulus which is misplaced – Goldman Sachs says more potential downside for the S&P 500 of around -25% per cent - J.P. Morgan warned investors of a vicious spiral which is typical of recessions – safe to say that sentiment is still very bearish. This seems to be the case in Goldman Sachs’ latest poll to 1,800 client responses where 50% believe the lows have not yet been set and 75% believe equites remain in a bear market. From an Elliott Wave perspective, medium-term buy signals were already triggered on March 23rd, the very day the major... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

8th April 2020 - The US$ dollar’s daily composite cycle (see fig #33 – recent Part IV video/report update) showed two peaks in February and July with an intervening but modest decline in-between. The cycle projection### then declines rapidly right through the rest of this year and into next. This delay is one reason why the dollar index seems reluctant to accelerate lower even though its designated an intermediate degree 3rd wave – its being held up by short-term cycles within the very bearish 7.8-year medium-term cycle downtrend. But it shouldn’t be long before the dollar begins to decline rapidly – it’s simply being held up by safe-haven buying as the coronavirus pandemic rolls on. But the markets are sensing a peak in infection rates, and if anxieties begin to fade, so will the demand for dollars. The US$ dollar index tested key resistance Monday at 100.93 and has since turned lower – that’s isolated the March rally from 98.27 into a corrective zig zag pattern which affirms its downtrend credentials. Similarly, the Euro/US$ has found support earlier this week at 1.0768 turning higher since... Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

8th April 2020 - Eurozone finance ministers were meeting again to decide on a coordinated economic package of support for the 27-menber countries where some hard-pressed delegates most affected by the#### coronavirus pandemic have requested a common debt issuance to back businesses impacted by the outbreak. But discussions broke down Wednesday but are expected to continue Thursday for the €500bn deal. Meanwhile, German finance ministers announced plans to roll-out a €355bn aid package specifically designed to support national businesses – this helped to push long-dated yields sharply... Read full summary in our latest report!

Commodities

8th April 2020 - Gold broke above last week’s high of 1643.86 Monday which has converted a three wave sequence from March’s low of 1451.45 from a three wave corrective sequence into a terminal five wave sequence. ###A five wave sequence approaching completion will inevitably open the way for a downswing to begin, resulting in declines over the next couple of weeks. But the preceding five wave uptrend ensures this will be a counter-trend correction within the larger, dominant uptrend. This offers some inevitability that gold will break above March’s high of 1702.92 at some later date and by doing so, will head towards next upside targets of 1840.00+/-. At some stage soon, rising inflationary pressures will take hold in a repeat event from the 1970’s, rising faster than interest rates – that would certainly be bullish. Silver’s uptrend from last month’s low of 11.64 is being confirmed by its five wave advance into Tuesday’s high of 15.45. This completes the 1st wave within a medium-term impulse uptrend where targets are towards 22.53+/- over the next couple of years. But before further... Read full summary in our latest report!

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

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TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES