ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
25th July 2024 - Exciting stuff! Over the last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both tested important upside targets for the completion of 2022-23’s rallies. Price rejection to the downside during the last ###several trading days is a promising beginning in validating a reversal-signature – the only thing missing was an intra-hourly five wave impulse decline to confirm directional change. Up until last Friday’s low, there were only three waves down so far – yes, the third sequence was quite a bit larger than the first decline, especially in the Nasdaq 100 which suggested 3rd wave characteristics – but the real proof was the necessity to decline in five waves – Monday/Tuesday’s rallies provided a 4th wave whilst today’s sell-off is the 5th! And so, we can now confirm a five wave impulse decline has unfolded from the previous week’s highs in the S&P and Nasdaq, confirming those highs as peaks for this year. Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
25th July 2024 - Then US$ dollar index has completed five waves down from July’s high of 106.13 into last week’s low of ###103.65 which completes minuette wave [i] – see inset. A counter-trend correction is underway towards approx. 104.90+/-. The three wave decline from April’s high of 106.51 measures the two declining sequences at a fib. 100% equality ratio, the ratio found in corrective zig zags. But this is not considered a zig zag because by comparison, other G10 dollar currency pairs do not show this same ratio – also, the AUD/US$’s inverse but corresponding ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
25th July 2024 - The US10yr yield has declined from April’s high of 4.737 into an overlapping five wave diagonal pattern, completing last week at 4.143. This is labelled intermediate wave (1) within### primary wave C’s developing impulse downtrend where ultimate targets remain unchanged towards 3.017+/-. Shorter-term, a three wave correction as wave (2) has begun – so far, this is expected to unfold as a single a-b-c zig zag and return back towards resistance at ‘fourth wave preceding degree’, i.e. minor wave iv. four’s high of 4.491 – in close proximity is the fib. 61.8% ret... Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
25th July 2024 - Precious metals have failed to maintain June’s advances despite gold’s break to modest new record highs last week. The reversal downswing in gold from a high of 2483.86 to Monday’s low of 2384.28 is### confirming minor wave iv. four’s correction that began from April’s high of 2431.03 is continuing to develop to the downside. Silver’s rally from June’s low of 28.55 ran out of steam ending into the previous week’s high of 31.78. Subsequent declines are in the process of unfolding into another zig zag, the third sequence in a triple zig zag that began from May’s high of 32.51 – downside targets towards 27.16+/-. Crude oil has just completed three waves down from July’s high of 84.52 into Tuesday’s low of 76.40. A 4th wave correction has begun, but once completed, followed by a 5th wave towards 75.00+/-. This is confirming the larger downtrend in progress as primary wave C. Read full summary in our latest report!
