learn more about EW Forecasts

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

The S&P’s mid-March upswing unfolded into a seven price-swing overlapping sequence that defines a counter-trend double zig zag pattern. It ended below the February high of 2119.59, thus confirming the immediacy of declines to continue a five wave event with ultimate downside targets towards 1945.00+/-. Prices have already traded lower during Wednesday’s session by over 20 points but basis ultimate downside targets, more is to follow during the next few trading days. A five wave completion from 2119.59 to 1945.00+/- will end the third sequence of a larger expanding flat pattern as wave ‘2’ within the uptrend in progress from the Oct.’14 low of 1820.66. ###So whilst the outlook remains bearish in the short-term, the larger pattern remains bullish into a new higher high projected into the June/July time-zone. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, the equivalent upswing from the Oct.’14 low of 1040.47 replaces the S&P’s five wave development with a three wave zig zag pattern. Intriguingly, its finalising ‘c’ wave depicts an evolving ending diagonal pattern – although it is still early in development, the completion of a diagonal into June/July would clarify and confirm the medium-term bullish structure (see chart in latest report). In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 and Dax have held recent levels but are now at risk of joining the S&P’s decline whilst unfolding into a fourth wave correction – we estimate a decline of around -8% per cent. In Asia, the Hang Seng remains in limbo at current levels of 24500.00+/-. If it synchronises with the U.S. decline, then it would easily break its recent lows at 23677.06 although we have included an alternate bullish count in this latest report. In Japan, the Nikkei has already achieved our primary upside targets but these can be extended a little using different fib-price-ratios that converge towards 19920.00+/-. A severe risk to the downside exists for this index. 25th March 2015

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

An additional decline into a lower low this week reinforced the bearish outlook for the US$ index. Remember that the March high of 10039 is seen as the completion of a 7-year upswing that originated from the March ’08 low of 7070. In addition, this upswing is labelled as a 2nd wave within a multi-decennial five wave downswing which not only points to a gradual meandering lower but to a more accentuated decline in the next years ahead as a 3rd wave is going to unfold. Yet shorter-term, the initial phases of a move of such magnitude ###are likely to be confusing – the Elliott Wave theory can provide important assistance in this respect. As an example: the short-term outlook allows for a deep upside retracement from current levels. This is because there is the possibility a running flat might be unfolding from last week’s low of 9662. It projects immediate upside to 9922-46 – enough to scare out many of the bears – prior to a reversal and acceleration lower. This can be replicated for the Euro/US$, with the distinction that in this case the flat will take the appearance of a horizontal structure – immediate downside to 1.0613+/- is possible prior to continuation higher. Meanwhile, US$/Yen traded lower and exceeded last week’s low of 11939. This occurrence significantly increases the likelihood that the March high of 12202 already completed primary wave 1. A sustained counter-trend decline as primary wave 2 is now in the early stages of its development. Shorter-term, a counter-trend rally to 12101-20 is likely to unfold prior to continuation lower – critical support is at 11815; a break below there would definitely confirm the 12202 high as a major top. The Aussie$ has, similarly to the Euro/US$, traded higher during the last two weeks and there is a high chance that a larger reversal signature is about to complete. So far, three consecutive advances are visible from the 0.7560 low but, most importantly, all of these advances appear to have unfolded into five waves which should secure upside continuation at least for the next several trading days and thus foster the new uptrend. 25th March 2015

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

February’s U.S. durable goods orders continues to show a weakening manufacturing sector. Expectations of an increase of +0.7% seemed far too optimistic as the actual figure came in -1.4%. Whilst this supports the dovish remarks made from the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting last week, it elicits a rather sombre outlook for manufacturing and economy as a whole. Meanwhile in Europe, Greek ###representatives negotiating with European politicians for an early cash bailout ended without resolution. European officials are putting pressure on Athens to deliver a convincing reform programme within days, otherwise emergency funds will be withheld. The situation remains tense although it would not be the first time that an ‘eleventh-hour’ solution is found. Meanwhile US10yr treasury yields have completed a downward correction to 1.850% - we expect an accelerative advance from this level to continue for the next several weeks. In Europe, the benchmark DE10yr yield is lifting higher to begin a multi-month 4th wave correction – this would suggest no flight-to-quality is around the corner, hence relieving pressure on the Greek situation to be resolved during the next couple of weeks. 25th March 2015

Commodities

The oversold condition registered in momentum studies for gold and silver into the mid-March lows are now being replaced with an overbought condition since prices have steadily risen during the last couple of weeks. Gold has undergone a counter-trend upswing from its mid-month low of 1142.87 and is now approaching resistance slightly above 1200.00+/-. This is the fib. 38.2% resistance level of the January decline from 1307.40 and we expect to see gold resume its larger decline### within the next few days to continue its double zig zag pattern with ultimate targets towards 1096.00-91.16+/-. Silver has similarly balanced its oversold condition from earlier this month into an overbought signal as prices approach resistance at 17.14+/-. We expect a synchronous decline with gold now forecasting silver resuming its larger pattern from the Jan.’15 high of 18.49 with ultimate downside targets towards 13.61 during the next several weeks. Brent oil confirmed a major low traded last January at 45.19 with a new medium-term uptrend since confirmed basis its intra-hour five wave upswing that followed to 63.00 last month. Since then, a counter-trend 2nd wave correction has begun to unfold but is taking a complex route as a double zig zag. Our latest updates describe a little higher before testing downside targets during the next few weeks towards 49.05+/-. 25th March 2015

LATEST ARTICLES

THE ‘INFLATION-POP’ - PRECIOUS METALS SET TO SURGE INTO RECORD HIGHS

Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.

OUTLOOK & FORECASTS FOR 2013

Highlights:

  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.

HOW TO INTERPRET EACH ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...

A COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?

Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows

THE 'DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO'

The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.

THE 'FLASH CRASH'

The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.

OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR 2011

This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.

PRODUCTS & SERVICES

EW FORECASTS

Our Flagship Institutional Service updating multiple time-frames across all asset classes...

Live Update FORUM

A unique advisory service that links you 'Live' in a private online meeting room with our analysts...

WTI Alerts

'Register' now and receive the latest EW-Product-Alerts via e-mail with updates for WaveSearch & up-coming tutorials and seminars.

TESTIMONIALS

"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.

ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN

INTRODUCTION TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE

The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.

NEWS & EVENTS

Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".

ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECAST UPDATES