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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

13th February 2016 - In recent updates, Elliott Wave counts have indicated that recent stock market declines are approaching important lows that signals the completion of an overall counter-trend phase that began from last year’s highs. A three ###wave pattern is evident in the S&P 500’s sell-off from last May’s high of 2134.72 with downside targets either already achieved at 1810.10 or destined to stretch slightly lower towards 1773.85+/- before beginning a new multi-month uptrend. The S&P is not alone – the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have both unfolded during the same period as counter-trend expanding flat patterns. Both are either forming lows now or approaching slightly lower levels. In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 is completing a five wave pattern from the secondary highs traded last November and potentially a larger three wave pattern from last April. This is also duplicated for Germany’s Xetra Dax. Not included in this report but important nonetheless is the fact that the Dow Jones Transportation Average has already completed a counter-trend zig zag pattern from the 2014 highs into the late-January lows with the Biotechnology index… read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

13th February 2016 - The US$ index has been in decline since early-December even whilst stock markets have seen double-digit percentage losses during the same period. With so much anxiety in the financial system, safe-haven buying for the US$ dollar seems to have been completely ignored as fears grow that negative interest### rates will also knock on the door of the Federal Reserve at some stage in the not-too-distant future. But on a more optimistic note, the US$ index traded down to exact Fibonacci support levels last week at 95.23. The following price-rejection isolates a counter-trend zig zag decline from the Dec.’15 high that signals an end to declines and the beginning of a sustained recovery. The inverse of this can also be seen in the Euro/US$. The December upswing from 1.0524 defines a counter-trend zig zag completing last week to fib-price-ratio targets at 1.1377 opening the way for declines to begin. Sterling/US$ dislocated… read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

13th February 2016 - The overriding themes so far this year are weakening earnings from major corporations, sterile economic growth in developing countries, particularly Europe, China’s GDP below 7% per cent, fears over continuing declines in commodities that affect emerging markets and more recently, declining earnings from ###investment banks and low liquidity coverage ratios (LCR’s). Furthermore, the negative interest rate policies of central banks in Europe, Switzerland, Japan and others has caught the attention of Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve. In last week’s address to the House Financial Services Committee, she commented that she didn’t want to eliminate the idea of using negative interest rates as a policy tool in order to support the economy if required. That comment spiked long-dated yields lower in an already trending decline from last December. The US10yr yield traded down to 1.528 but its subsequent snap higher to 1.670 isolates a corrective pattern from the June ’15 high. read full summary in our latest report!


13th February 2016 - Last Thursday’s upward acceleration for precious metals was the largest single-day advance since prices began trending higher from the Dec.’15 lows – gold ran up from $1197.00 to $1263.25, a gain of +$66.25 dollars### whilst silver began from $15.28 trading to a peak at $15.97, +$0.69 dollars. This coincided with further anxiety within financial markets as stock markets climbed a wall of worry over concerns of deflation and the inability of central banks to stimulate global economies. Precious metals have been one of the main beneficiaries of stock market declines as investors have sought to buy safe-haven assets. Sharp price rises for gold and silver are perfectly timed because overall counter-trend declines from the 2011 peaks were already indicating directional trend change. But there are signs that the stock market may be completing overall counter-trend declines from last year’s highs. Does that mean precious metals will now resume downtrends? We believe…. read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".