What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers &
letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are
immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and
put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of
these subjects and much more...
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The CRB Cash index illustrates a long-term bull market in progress from the Great Depression lows of 1932 and basis the Elliott Wave count, is approaching completion within the next 18 months, max. 2yr period with upside targets measured using the Fibonacci Summation sequence towards 849.07 – see fig #1. The following years suggest a dramatic sell-off that acts as the counter-balance to the preceding 80yr uptrend.
The 250yr cycle reveals a repeating 28.4yr to 30.5yr periodicity with a peak occurring now then turning downwards and lasting a little beyond the current decade – see fig #2. A close-up of the final advance into the high can be seen in fig’s #3 & #4.
Copper prices already ended their 74yr uptrend that began from the 1932 lows in 2006 at 8875 (LME 3mths). The counter-trend phase that followed is shown unfolding into a counter-trend pattern commonly referred to as an expanding flat. This allows a momentary advance to a new price-extreme (new record high) towards 13920 by late 2012, early 2013 before staging a collapse – see fig #5.
Gold is also in the final stages of a long-term bull market that began from the 2932 lows. Ultimate upside targets measure towards just below 1900.00 per ounce and expected to finalise into the same time-zone, late 2012, early 2013 and then beginning a major bear campaign lasting through into 2016-18 – see fig #6.
Soybeans began its final bull market advance at the same time gold did, in late 1999. It is taking the form of an expanding five wave diagonal pattern with some huge price-swing s expected during the next few years – ultimate upside targets to 2047.40 by 2012-13 but joining other commodities in a major sell-off lasting through to 2016-18 – see fig #7.
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Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first,
this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade,
and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already
undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows
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The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook,
forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is
derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash)
Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.
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The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecasts Plus responded to the sharp collapse and
the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.
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This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.
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