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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

28th November 2015 - U.S. and European stock markets inch slowly higher following last week’s U.S. Thanksgiving holiday amidst quiet and low volume trading. With next week’s European Central Bank meeting on the agenda, and with Mario Draghi expected to expand his monetary easing policies, we expect European stock markets to ###hold their ground and continue their advance throughout the coming week. The S&P and Dow Jones (DJIA) are heading towards new record highs into year-end although European indices, currently outperforming in percentage terms since the September lows, are expected to reattempt but not break the April highs. It is possible for them to extend above if indices like the Eurostoxx 50 and Xetra Dax transform existing three wave advances into a five wave sequences – but this will become obvious during the next week. The S&P’s advance from the August low maintains the five wave ending diagonal pattern with ultimate targets towards 2180.06+/-. This latest report includes updates for the Dow Jones (DJIA) and Nasdaq 100. In Asia, stock markets took an overnight hit with the Shanghai Composite down by -5.5% per cent. Other regional markets followed lower as a result of regulatory investigations into alleged mis-trading by some of the largest stockbrokers in the country. Our latest analysis of the Shanghai Composite suggests the next phase of declines that began from last July have now begun. India’s Nifty 50 is tracking the momentum of the S&P and is heading higher to extend its original zig zag upswing from August into a double pattern. Japan’s Nikkei has traded into original upside targets to complete a counter-trend correction from the August low although this could extend a little further to synchronise with the S&P 500.

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

28th November 2015 - Last week, we changed both the US$’s and Euro’s outlook for the next several weeks. Continued strength in the US$ suggests the overlapping and corrective upward sequence we have witnessed lately is part of an ending expanding-diagonal pattern that will eventually stretch higher before a more ###pronounced sell-off can get underway. This sell-off that should pull prices lower by January however is likely to be followed by one additional and concluding upswing towards ultimate upside at 102.03-20 to finalise the entire upswing from the Aug.’15 low of 92.62. Vice versa, the Euro is heading lower during the next few weeks only to stage a subsequent counter-trend advance, followed by a finalising deep sell-off into lower lows afterwards. Ultimate downside in the Euro’s case is measured towards 1.0146+/-. Meanwhile Sterling has drifted lower and thus confirmed the mid-November high of 1.5337 as the completion of a 2nd wave within the ongoing five wave ending contracting-diagonal sequence. Declines as the 3rd wave are poised for continuation lower in the weeks ahead before a 4th wave counter-trend rally will attempt the 1.5026+/- area (an ‘overlap’ is obligatory in a diagonal pattern). Ultimate downside objectives to be approached in early-2016 remain unchanged and are listed in our report. After synchronising the US$/Yen’s movement with the renewed outlook for the US$, the former currency pair is seen in an ending contracting-diagonal pattern that should help push prices higher into new highs. In this latest report, we have included sub-structural fib-price-ratio measurements to pin down the idealised conclusion for the diagonal’s 3rd wave currently in progress.

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

28th November 2015 - The Federal Reserve’s December meeting is still a couple of weeks away, scheduled for December 15-16 but the immediate future focuses on next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. President Mario Draghi is expected to announce an extended plan for his current monetary ###easing and bond-purchasing programme. So far, this is widening the 10/10-spread and flattening the U.S. curve. Meanwhile, the US10yr yield continues to edge lower into a counter-trend 4th wave correction from the November high. Downside targets are not far away anymore and once completed, will unleash a surging 5th wave advance with targets reattempting the June highs towards 2.500+/-. In Europe, our benchmark DE10yr yield continues its decline from the June high as a counter-trend 2nd wave correction. Whether this is unfolding into a single or double zig zag is irrelevant in this specific case as fib-price-ratio measurements for each pattern converge down at 0.170+/-. This is still 27bps away which implies additional widening on the spread until completed.


28th November 2015 - Friday’s U.S. trading activity resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday but volumes were thin in just about every asset class, including precious metals as market-makers took the opportunity to extend festivities until next week. A slightly higher US$ dollar during the day led to weaker commodity### prices although base metals held above the lows recorded earlier in the week. But gold was unable to hold, instead declining to a new 5-year low to 1052.85. This was not a surprise though as our Elliott Wave analysis has expected this downside attempt. Contrastingly, silver held above Monday’s low of 13.91 in an impressive defiance of golds more bearish sentiment. Silver traded down to a Friday low of 13.96 but closed higher at 14.15. Whilst gold attempts ultimate downside targets at 1052.11-51.72+/-, we note that Asian gold demand, especially data reporting from the Shanghai Gold Exchange is at an ALL-TIME-HIGH! Deliveries of physical metal ending Nov. 20th were at 54 tonnes which totals 2,313 tonnes for the entire year. This is equivalent to about 80% per cent of current global new mined production. By contrast, investors of paper gold liquidated another US$1bn dollars from trading funds. This was the largest outflow in 17 weeks. And by comparison, some of the funds generated by these sales are being transferred into money market funds – according to BAML, inflows are the largest in eight weeks bringing an accumulated total to a huge US$12bn dollars. Crude oil remains above the previous week’s reversal low of 40.06/38.99 that ended its counter-trend decline from the October highs. So far, the following advance is too modest to confirm a more bullish accelerative advance but next week’s OPEC meeting may trigger such an event.



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".