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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

30th April 2016 - The latest Q1 GDP estimates came through weaker than expected, building upon last week’s Federal Reserve’s dovish remarks for the U.S. economy. The bullish mood of the last few months is definitely weakening with the S&P heading lower during the latter stages of last week. We already know that five wave patterns within February’s advance### for the financial sector indices are in a terminal stage of completion, highlighting the probability that counter-trend declines have already begun. But our preferential counts for the S&P are more complex describing this current sell-off as simply a 4th wave correction. Time will tell if this is correct. Downside support at ‘4th wave preceding degree’ is still lower than current levels towards 2026.00+/- so this remains the main test for the coming week. The XLF Financial ETF index defines a more clearly visible five wave pattern completing last week – so this places more emphasis to the downside. The Dow’s recent high at 18167.60 is currently labelled a 3rd wave although we are open to a relabelling that already ends its five wave upswing from the February low. The Nasdaq 100 has been hit hardest with Apple Inc.’s continued decline so this seems more vulnerable to additional… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

30th April 2016 - Thursday’s first estimate for Q1 U.S. GDP came in weaker than forecasts, at +0.5%, slightly lower than economists’ estimates at +0.7%. This was followed Friday, by the latest inflation figures as depicted in the Federal Reserve’s preferred statistic, the PCE price index. It came through on a year-on-year basis at only +0.8%, far below the central bank’s ###2% per cent target. Both figures had an impact on the US$ dollar which continued its weakness to a new nine-month low with the index at 93.09. This latest weakness in U.S. economic data is coming on the back of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting with comments from the committee that economic activity had slowed and that growth in U.S. household spending had also moderated despite consumer sentiments levels remaining high. The Yen is also gaining strength as the Bank of Japan announced that it was to keep its main monetary policy unchanged. This came as a surprise because earlier comments had suggested more stimulus was on its way. This latest round of US$ dollar weakness is considered… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

30th April 2016 - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at levels between 0.375% per cent and 0.500% per cent at its latest FOMC meeting, last Wednesday evening. In its following statement, it said that economic activity had slowed and that growth### in U.S. household spending had also moderated despite consumer sentiments levels remaining high. It also highlighted details on the many conflicting signs in the economic data, something the markets chose to focus on in later trading. Early Thursday, the Bank of Japan announced that it was to keep its main monetary policy unchanged. This came as a surprise because earlier comments had suggested more stimulus was on its way. Despite this lack of additional monetary easing, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to do whatever it takes to boost the country’s low inflation, saying there were no limits to stimulus measures. Weaker PCE inflation figures announced…Read full summary in our latest report!


30th April 2016 - The five wave impulse patterns evident in many commodity advances from the Jan./Feb. lows are approaching important upside targets for completion. Gold’s earlier orthodox five wave completion into the March high is being followed by a correction### in the form of an expanding flat. This allows slightly higher highs prior to a sharp decline to complete the corrective pattern. Silver’s recent outperformance came to a grinding halt last Friday as gold tracked higher. Resistance at 17.94-18.25 is likely to end its five wave upswing from last December. Speculative longs are in extreme overbought territory highlighting silver’s downside risks at current levels. The US$ dollar has extended its declines from last December’s high but is also approaching downside completion. Once it begins to turn higher, we expect to see most commodities begin… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".