ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
30th June 2016 - A straight fourth day gain in U.K. and U.S. stock markets has seen prices recoup most of the ‘Brexit’ decline and amazingly, the London FTSE-100 index has led the rally by breaking above the pre-referendum high during Thursday’s trading, even ###outperforming our global benchmark, the S&P 500. The FTSE-100 has risen from last Friday’s low by a massive 700 points, a gain of +12.1% per cent compared to the S&P’s advance of 94 points, a gain of +4.7% per cent. European indices are still lagging behind somewhat as economists debate what long-term implications of a ‘Brexit’ means for the cohesion of the remaining 27 Eurozone members. If the current recovery upswing of stock markets tells us anything, it is the robustness of markets to withstand the shock that ‘Brexit’ originally gave last Friday/Monday. It affirms the Elliott Wave prognosis that a much more important event happened last February when a ‘Re-synchronisation’ of global... Read full summary in our latest report!
30th June 2016 Trapped inside the multi-month contracting triangle sequence, the US$ index is indicative of strong upside momentum. Although we have seen a sell-off from 96.70 to 95.44 in the last days (following the post-Brexit surge from 93.01), there is reason to think that this### sell-off has completed a three price-swing correction. This in turn would favour an immediate continuation higher, with a subsequent attempt of original upside objectives for the completion of minute wave d during the next few weeks. The Euro’s situation is similar: its weakness during the last few trading sessions following the Brexit...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
30th June 2016 - One of the big beneficiaries of fund flows following last Friday’s Brexit announcement was the U.S. corporate bond market. Yes, funds were also flowing into government bonds but with these hovering around zero per cent, safe-haven flows sought high yield### pick-up in corporates and in US$ terms. As stock markets rebound, some of this may be unwound although reverberations over Brexit have continued into the European market. Despite this, the US10yr yield has managed only a modest upswing from last week’s low and on an intra-hourly basis, is unfolding into a corrective triangle. This may take another few days to complete but is the precursor before.... Read full summary in our latest report!
30th June 2016 - With stock markets on the ‘up’, this means a reallocation of risk-on strategies by global fund managers. It also means an unwinding of safe-haven assets. Precious metals have been one of the beneficiaries of safe-haven flows but is now prone### to long-liquidation within the background of a rising US$ dollar. Gold again traded modestly during Thursday’s session at 1320.45 but still below last week’s peak at 1358.48. Our forecast remains bearish with downside forecasts to 1176.84+/-. This outlook is supported by the fact that gold’s upswing from the recent 1200.10 low has unfolded into a zig zag, momentum indicators are in overbought territory and the latest COT... Read full summary in our latest report!