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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

3rd October 2015 The build-up ahead of last Friday’s U.S. Non-farm payroll figures saw analysts agreeing consensus forecasts for gains of +203k but nothing could have prepared for the actual figure of only 142k! Furthermore, the August figure was revised lower from +173k to only +136k – a double-whammy! The implications### of a slow-down in the hiring of the labour force translates into expectations the Federal Reserve will not hike interest rates sometime before year-end, in contradiction to the remarks made by Janet Yellen only a few nights ago. This has certainly frightened the market into believing the U.S. will be affected by a slow-down in the economies of China, Emerging Markets and Europe. The S&P wobbled after the announcement with declines down to 1883.00 (futures) but this was reversed afterwards with gains back above 1909.00. Importantly, declines held above lows traded earlier last week of 1861.00 and this validates continued upside progress for the next few weeks with targets above the September high of 2011.75 (see latest charts). In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50’s low traded earlier last week at 2987.47 was also held and this confirms a larger counter-trend upswing is already in progress, balancing the preceding declines from the July highs. Some impressive percentage gains are forecast during the next several weeks. Germany’s Xetra Dax is similarly positioned to begin a multi-week counter-trend upswing. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite index shows some stabilisation last week before markets closed for the Golden Week holiday although upon reopening, we still expect a lower test before a more sustained upswing gets underway. In Australia, the ASX 200 formed an important low last August with prices holding well above since – this rally began a counter-trend advance with upside targets towards 5500+/-. In Japan, the Nikkei is positioned for a strong accelerative upswing during the next few weeks towards 19450.00+/-.

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

3rd October 2015 Whilst the larger-term picture remains unchanged for both the US$ index and the Euro/US$, short-term gyrations sparked by the Non-farm payrolls have extended smaller 2nd wave counter-trend corrections. In the case of the US$ index, the decline from the September high of 96.70 is likely to extend into the 95.00+/- area prior to staging a reversal. This results in equivalent upside close to the 1.1400+/- range for the Euro/US$ before turning lower again. It is important not to get distracted ###from the larger picture – multi-month expanding flat sequences for both the US$ and Euro are expected to finalise during the next weeks; and this implies much more strength for the US$ and additional weakness for the Euro once the current short-term moves have completed. Sterling has found support at the 1.5100+/- range and seems now engaged in a counter-trend rally. This should be temporary though – labelled as a ‘b’ wave within the finalising zig zag of a double sequence, wave ‘c’ declines are expected afterwards. We have added another downside objective based on the recent short-term development. Meanwhile, US$/Yen has traded below initial support at 119.04 and is currently trading at the 118.65+/- area. Although this rules out a contracting/symmetrical triangle sequence for wave ‘x’ within the ongoing double zig zag advance in progress from the August low, it still allows for additional upside in the weeks ahead if wave ‘x’ is interpreted as a single zig zag. Immediate downside support is measured to 117.67 whilst ultimate upside for this multi-week advance has been readjusted.

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

3rd October 2015 In the early hours of Friday morning, news filtered through from the U.S. that the ECB central bank president, Mario Draghi was making an address to an audience in New York. He stated that growth was returning to the Eurozone after seven or eight years of stagnation. He refrained from making any direct comments related to monetary policy but said that further country-member integration would yield more scale for growth. This held benchmark long-dated yields### above the August lows as European trading began. But later, during the U.S. session, the latest announcement of Non-farm Payrolls for September caused a massive yield decline. The consensus expectations for the Non-farm Payrolls was for +203,000 increase but came in substantially lower at +142,000. The mid-summer season is often volatile, but even this figure was much less than even the most pessimistic forecasts of +180k. Furthermore, the August figure was revised lower from +173k to only +136k. The implications of a slow-down in the hiring of the labour force translates into expectations the Federal Reserve will not hike interest rates sometime before year-end, in contradiction to the remarks made by Janet Yellen only a few nights ago. The US10yr yield now threatens major support at the August low of 1.903%. The probability of breaking this level has now been heightened with the next key support at 1.798%. A break below this would signal a downtrend to new record lows as our latest update illustrates. Meanwhile in Europe, the DE10yr yield has broken similar support levels at 0.509% to confirm an extended counter-trend decline unfolding during the next couple of months.


3rd October 2015 Last Friday’s U.S. release of September’s Non-farm payrolls surprised the markets with an increase of only +142k. This led to an immediate markdown for the US$ dollar but not all commodities benefited from the weaker currency. Gold and silver were however, the main beneficiaries. Prior to the ###announcement, gold traded down to downside targets at 1104.50 whilst unfolding into a counter-trend zig zag pattern from the recent high of 1157.07 – silver also tested targets at 14.40 but importantly, holding above secondary support levels of 14.29. This proved critical once the Non-farm payroll figure was announced – prices surged higher to validate a reversal signature whilst maintaining a bullish sequence from the July/August lows. Precious metals are now set to accelerate higher during the coming week as a defined 3rd-of-3rd wave is now in motion. From now on, retracements are expected to be minimal whilst upside gains break successive overhead resistance levels to confirm the medium-term outlook as bullish. Crude oil was not one of the beneficiaries of the weak US$ dollar last Friday and is still engaged in a shorter-term counter-trend decline that began from last month’s high of 49.33. Downside targets remain towards 41.10+/- and only once achieved do we expect Crude oil to follow other commodities higher.



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".