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ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary

Stock Indices

28th May 2016 - The S&P is closing in on its April high of 2111.05. This was originally labelled as ending the 1st wave within a larger uptrend that began from last February’s low with the following downswing part of a corrective decline. We expect this to continue without breaking above the April high but should the unexpected occur, it would simply prolong the### five wave pattern from last February with upside objectives towards 2190.00+/-. This would result in a new record high but it would also allow a deep 2nd wave correction to begin. From empirical observation, 2nd wave corrections can be typically sharp and deep movements and this would be expected should the S&P extend to 2190.00+/-. This is because the 2190.00+/- level would result in an equivalent advance for European indices that would complete a counter-trend upswing from last February’s low at +7-8% above… Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Currencies

Currencies (FX)

28th May 2016 - The US$’s upside momentum remains intact as it is closing in on original interim resistance levels at the 96.00+/- area. Friday afternoon the US$ appreciated due to revisions of the Q1 U.S. growth data but a larger impact is expected from Janet Yellen’s speech at the Harvard University as it could give away some hints about the timing ###of the next interest rate rise. This is in tune with the possibility of a reversal-signature from the 96.00+/- area that would allow for a temporary pullback. The Euro’s decline likewise suggests a termination of the initial leg within a three price-swing decline unfolding from the 1.1617 high. A bounce higher is expected soon prior to additional declines in the subsequent weeks. Sterling staged a serious attempt to break the 1.4771 high of early-May but, so far, has not succeeded. Moreover, fib-price-ratio measurements point to…Read full summary in our latest report!

Financial Updates Bonds

Bonds (Interest Rates)

28th May 2016 - The Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is addressing Harvard University late-session (Europe) on Friday although it is unknown whether she will make any hints about monetary policy. This follows on the back of earlier statements made last week by her colleagues’ Harker, Kashkari and Kaplan who echoed last month’s### FOMC statement that stated additional interest rate rises could be on the way. Patrick Harper even said that the mid-June policy meeting might trigger the next hike but this was dependent of the latest batch of economic data. Since details of last month’s FOMC ‘minutes’ were announced, long-dated yields have trended higher, the US$ dollar has traded sharply higher and stock markets have generally gained ground on the basis that any rate rise reflects a stronger U.S. economy. The Q1 ’16 second revision of GDP was announced Friday with an upward gain of 3/10’s of a point to 0.8%. This was slightly lower than consensus forecasts of 0.9% but in all, a stronger figure on the basis of a pick –up in residential investment and exports. Our medium-term Elliott Wave forecasts for GDP indicate a stagnation this year, Read full summary in our latest report!


28th May 2016 - As gold broke above the March high of 1282.88 in early-May to 1303.81, it coincided with a significant increase in bullish sentiment. This was widely reported in recent updates as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) highlighted### extreme levels of large speculative longs. This accompanied several investment bank analysts to turn bullish, advising clients to begin buying. These contrarian indicators proved invaluable but only in conjunction with the Elliott Wave analysis that projected a terminal high within an evolving counter-trend expanding flat pattern. The statistics and the pattern proved correct with gold’s sustained decline by almost $100.00 dollars since. It was no coincidence that the US$ index was also forming a synchronised low in early-May. This has since pushed significantly higher enough to influence gold… Read full summary in our latest report!



Bloomberg hosted a Precious Metals Forum on 23rd May and WaveTrack International was invited to present our latest Elliott Wave price-forecasts. The event was sponsored by the CME Group and Johnson Matthey.



  • The 2013 outlook for global stock indices and commodities remains very bullish and is entering the last stage of the ‘inflation-pop’ phase that originally began from the post-financial crisis lows of 2008/09
  • This is expected to ignite another period of asset buying that increases risk-on multiples by a minimum 45% per cent and in some cases as much as +300% per cent, sending some global stock indices and commodities into record highs
  • Shorter-term, there is a danger of a downward adjustment of -5-8% per cent, but then sharp price advances to resume
  • Commodity related stock indices and equities are expected to outperform as a sector during the next 12-16 months
  • Banking stocks to participate, but most will not exceed their pre-financial crisis highs

As always, this year’s Outlook & Forecasts for the next twelve months are created applying the Elliott Wave Principle for the assessment of pattern and price amplitude, also Cycle Analysis for the timing of the larger trend reversals. Not always do they jive, but they seldom contradict and more often, provide valuable insights into one or two variations of a similar theme within a seemingly unlimited amount of possibilities.

Even though this report outlines the price expectancy of all asset classes for 2012 it will also illustrate how this coming year fits together into the larger picture. The reasoning behind this is to move away from the 'black-box' stereotype and show you why the results relate to their specific outcome. Overall, this report deals with two different time-periods – long-term and inter-mediate term. Long-term refers to the uptrends from the Great Depression of 1932 onwards and inter-mediate term for the coming year and into 2013.


What do you see when looking at an Elliott Wave chart? Just lots of numbers & letters overlaying the price data? – or do you see definable patterns that are immediately familiar? And how do you interpret the results of the analysis and put it into an effective trading plan? Read on and test your own knowledge of these subjects and much more...


Recent reports of a Commodity Super-Cycle grabbed my attention for two reasons – first, this is diametrically different to the outlook I foresee developing during the next decade, and second, this terminology has surfaced at a time when various commodities have already undergone large percentage gains measured from the Feb.'09 lows


The primary theme of this presentation focuses on a 'Deflationary' outlook, forecast as the dominant aspect continuing during the next decade. This is derived from analysing the Elliott Wave pattern structure of the CRB (Cash) Index during its expansionary period of the last 76 years.


The Update Alert! messaging service of EW-Forecast Plus responded to the sharp collapse and the following recovery of US stock indices during the volatile trading session on the 6th May.


This analysis centres around the S&P 500 that is used as a proxy for other global indices. The great bull market beginning from the 1932 low ends 68 years later in 2000 - other global indices peaked later in 2007 (75yrs) – some still continuing to progress.



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"I just wanted to congratulate you on the EW-Compass reports launch. I'd say all the work you've all put into this project is well worth it… never cease to be amazed by the harmony that you find between the fib relations you highlight and the Elliott count you propose. You are a true descendant of RNE, and I'm quite sure he'd have really loved to see your work… Another aspect that sets you apart is your deep knowledge of the how and why of pattern relationships between higher & lower degrees of the same price action. So much to learn there". - T.S.



The Wave Principle, often referred to as Elliott Wave is a unique methodology that applies Natures Laws, those encompassing the Natural Sciences and Universal Geometric Philosophies to the financial markets. It allows us to view price fluctuations as an organised process that can be non-linearly extrapolated to gain a glimpse into the future direction of trends, counter-trends and amplitudes on any market or contract traded around the world.

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they actually exist? - Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal

In R.N.Elliott's original treatise of "The Wave Principle (1938)", he introduces us to diagonal patterns for the first time on page 21. Under the heading, Triangles, Elliott describes the difference between horizontal triangles that represent hesitation within an ongoing, progressive trend and diagonal triangles that form the concluding 5th wave of a larger five wave sequence.


Tradersworld Online Expo #12 – Starts 12th November 2012

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 12th Trader Expo held online for 7 weeks starting on 12th November 2012 and ending in the new year on 6th January 2013. Peter’s presentation is entitled “Elliott Wave Price Forecasts & Cycle Projections – Three Phases of the 18 Year Bear Market ~ ‘Shock–Pop–Drop’” for more information visit http://tradersworldonlineexpo.com/

Announcement: 123rd Battery Council & Trade Fair Convention in Miami, 1-4 May 2011

Peter Goodburn will be presenting his latest Elliott Wave analysis at the 123rd Trade Fair Convention of the Battery Council in Miami, 1-4 May 2011. Peter’s presentation is entitled "The Historical Price Trend of Lead and Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to plot its course into the Future".