ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
4th July 2025 - Following a correction in May then modest gains in June, this month’s stock index rallies have begun to accelerate in a noticeable pick-up in bullish sentiment. Large asset managers have held back from ###repositioning long exposure following April’s rout but there’s reports that a re-emergence has begun as geopolitical anxieties wane even though U.S. president Trump’s July 9th deadline to strike tariff deals approaches with key states like Japan and the European Union still dragging out negotiations. The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both pushed strongly higher this week although registering a short-term overbought condition on several technical indicators. In order to finish April’s five wave impulse uptrend, it’s necessary to complete its 3rd wave at or just above tonight’s closing levels, then beginning... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
4th July 2025 - The US$ dollar index has tested downside targets that finish May’s triple zig zag decline ending earlier this week at 96.37, just a few pips from downside targets of 96.42+/- with some response ###higher over the last couple of days. That’s a promising start to test the validity that dollar selling has reached an end – at least for the next several months. It hasn’t yet done enough to the upside to qualify a reversal-signature, but should it add to today’s gain to 97.42 early next week, then it’ll open the way for minor wave c.’s next advance to take the dollar a lot higher, towards targets of 102.95+/-, sometime later this year. The Euro/US$ has also hit tops for minor wave b. at 1.1829 but again, not enough downside progress so far to qualify a reversal-signature although today’s decline to 1.1718 is promising. Stlg/US$ has declined sharply from this week’s high of 1.3788 which goes a long way in confirming January’s entire uptrend as intermediate wave (1) has completed. US$/Yen successfully held nearby support to 142.68 and has turned higher to begin the next advance of its multi-month upward correction that began from April’s low of 139.89. US$/CAD ended intermediate wave (1)’s entire five wave impulse ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
4th July 2025 - House Republicans voted to pass President Donald Trump’s massive budget bill – it promises continuity for taxpayers by permanently extending the cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as### well as a raft of new cuts, including breaks for tipped and overtime income. But its critics say it’ll add around $4 trillion to the national debt pile - as part of the tax package, lawmakers raised the U.S. government's $36.1 trillion borrowing limit that it was projected to hit later this summer by $5 trillion. The US10yr yield rallied higher on today’s non-farm-payroll numbers although this is seen as a short-term correction ahead of resuming lower. Buyers of risky European... Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
4th July 2025 - This latest update for gold shows intermediate wave (4) unfolding into an a-b-c expanding flat pattern from April’s high of 3500.17. It’s yet to decide if wave a. is heading more directly lower ###towards 2908.00+/- during the next couple of months or so, or if wave b. is already set to test levels into modest higher-highs, towards max. 3596.17+/-. Silver is correspondingly in flux too, deciding whether April’s rally ends a zig zag at June’s high of 37.31 which would translate into a more immediate bearish count, or if it breaks higher to confirm a progressive impulse uptrend to 45.00+/-. Wednesday’s latest EIA report showed an increase in inventories of 3.8mn barrels ...Read full summary in our latest report!
