ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
8th August 2026 - JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon has warned that leverage across financial markets remained elevated, adding that investors should be mindful that hidden borrowing could amplify### market disruptions. Dimon pointed towards the extreme margin debt levels fuelling the current stock market uptrend - borrowing through prime brokerages, hedge funds, exchange-traded funds and treasury arbitrage strategies are at extremes. The Federal Reserve’s latest stability report showed that hedge fund gross leverage reached record highs. Of course, these types of extremes are not reliable timing indicators for an adjustment, a rebalancing which can only mean a stock market sell-off – extremes can extend even further – but we have other tools to do that – Elliott Wave. For sure, recent performance dislocation between AI technology sectors has considerably clouded the picture – some sectors like IT software still look weak having declined in five waves from last September’s high into April’s low, like the IGV ETF – others, like the semiconductor/chip sectors... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
8th August 2026 - Today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined in July, lower than consensus expectations of +88k, falling by -23,000 amid a drop of -53,000 government jobs and softness in retail, leisure and### hospitality, and slower-than-usual growth in healthcare. There were also downscaling revisions to last month’s data, too – June’s increase of 57k was revised to only 20k. The net result was a modest decline in the US$ dollar index – not entirely unsurprising given the cross-referencing across G10 dollar currency pairs. The US$ dollar index slipped to 99.40 although approaching optimum downside targets at 99.20+/- although analysis has provision for a deeper correction in wave 4 towards 98.60+/-. The Euro/US$’s corresponding but inverse rally as wave 4 is also testing initial upside targets of 1.1583+/- although...Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
8th August 2026 - Today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined in July, lower than consensus expectations of +88k, falling by -23,000 amid a drop of -53,000 government jobs and softness in retail, leisure and### hospitality, and slower-than-usual growth in healthcare. There were also downscaling revisions to last month’s data, too – June’s increase of 57k was revised to only 20k. The US10yr yield whipsawed around the data release, declining from 4.670 to a low of 4.602 before rallying again, into the close of 4.660. Despite the softening of inflationary pressures, the yield has remained stubbornly high – a short-term downward test of 4.557+/- is still possible ahead of next advances towards 4.917+/-. There was little impact in the DE10yr yield with only a... Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
8th August 2026 - Gold has continued this week’s surge higher and is now testing fib. 50% retracement levels as minute wave 4’s upward [a]-[b]-[c] zig zag correction that began from the late-June low of 3944.81 to### 4371.72 – gold rejected and declined into the close to 4327.66 although this isn’t yet enough to validate a reversal-signature decline. If this is confirmed next week, it would secure the beginning of wave 5’s next decline. Silver’s corresponding pattern is a little more complex but could have also ended wave 4’s upward correction from 54.77 into today’s high of 65.13+/- although awaiting a valid confirmation. Saudi Arabia has issued a fresh warning of an expanding conflict in the Middle East, after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched an attack on the country which wounded 11 civilians. U.S. President...Read full summary in our latest report!
