ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
26th April 2025 - The mid-week report showed an interesting pattern development for Nvidia Corp. – it’s a proxy candidate for just about everything else. Its decline from January’s high of 153.13 was shown unfolding into a five wave ending/expanding-diagonal pattern, the concluding sequence of a larger expanding### flat pattern unfolding down from the July ’24 high of 140.76. Its compelling characteristic was the way the 1st and 3rd wave declines each unfolded into clearly identifiable a-b-c zig zags, an indelible personality of the ending-type diagonal. A 4th wave is currently pushing higher alongside the continued upside recovery of U.S. indices including the Nasdaq 100 but at 123.00+/-, it’s expected to turn down to begin a 5th wave to lower-lows. What implications does that have for the Nasdaq 100 and the other indices too? – does that mean the tariff-narrative will nose-dive again? – and yet, when casting the analysis net further, we see so many other positives that otherwise suggest a major low occurred earlier this month. This report has shown that original fib-price-ratio downside targets from December’s annual Stock Indices Part I report/video were met into April’s lows – and this coincided with very bearish sentiment, often a reliable, contrarian bullish indicator. A reminder of the bullish readout is visible across several other Mag-7 equites including Microsoft Corp.. Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
26th April 2025 - The US$ dollar index is still trending lower from January’s high of 110.17, unfolding into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern – in today’s report, this decline is promoted from minor wave i. one to intermediate wave (1) because it’s been quite a large decline relative to the larger### downtrend developing as primary wave 3 – it’s already down by -11% per cent and not quite finished yet – a short-term 4th wave correction began earlier this week and once completed, a 5th wave decline is expected to finalise wave (1) towards 96.37+/- which is then -12.5% per cent down from the high. Wave (2) can then begin a recovery sometime in May and lasting several months – what does that tell us about other asset classes? Right now, probably very little because normal relationships have been breaking down – US10yr yields are expected to begin intermediate degree 3rd wave downside acceleration but normally, that suggests continued weakening of…Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
26th April 2025 - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh who’s apparently a candidate favoured by President Donald Trump to replace Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell later this year has been critical of the central bank’s policies saying the Fed has gone beyond its remit and undermined its### own claims to independence. He urged the Fed to stop relying on ‘data dependence’ to guide its decisions, and on forward guidance to let the public know where rates may be headed. The financial media has interviewed numerous European Central Bank policymakers….Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
26th April 2025 - Gold traded down from Tuesday’s high of 3500.39 into an intra-hourly five wave impulse pattern, ending at Wednesday evening at 3261.78. This has confirmed the 3500.39 high ended the entirety of intermediate wave (3)’s uptrend that began from the Oct.’23 low of 1810.35. A multi-month corrective### downswing has now begun intermediate wave (4). Silver is showing strong resilience - whilst gold has declined $230 dollar per ounce during the last week, silver has actually edged higher, confirming April’s low at 28.36 ended intermediate wave (2)’s correction that began from last October’s high of 34.92. In energy markets, Crude oil is taking… Read full summary in our latest report!
