ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
30th August 2025 - Sky-high expectations left Nvidia shares in the red overnight despite another earnings beat from the world's most valuable company, as the market grumbled about slowing growth in core areas and ###ongoing geopolitical obstacles. The chip giant’s shares were down about -2% ahead of Thursday's open but they recovered during the session to a double-top high of 184.48 before slipping lower to 176.41 before closing at 180.11. The short-term pattern is confirming a 4th wave triangle in downside progress with more work to do in the concluding e wave sequence, targeting max. 171.60+/- sometime next week – upon completion though, it’s up-and-away again, a 5th wave target towards 196.00+/- ahead of completing April’s entire five wave uptrend – and once that’s completed, a far larger downward correction….. Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
30th August 2025 - The US$ dollar index slipped marginally lower earlier today as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve grew. Traders are currently pricing-in around 89% probability of a### 25bps rate cut next month, and are pricing-in in a cumulative 55bps basis points of easing by year-end. U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud continues whilst expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in September rose after Fed Governor John Williams said ‘risks are more in balance’. The dollar index’s zig zag decline from the early-August high of 100.25 edges closer to completion, towards targets of 97.07+/-. This tallies with the corresponding zig zag decline from August’s high in the US$/Yen which remains our short-term proxy because of the reliability of ...FONT SIZE=-3 COLOR="gray">Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
30th August 2025 - The US10yr yield has slipped marginally lower earlier today as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve grew. Traders are currently pricing-in around 89% probability of a### 25bps rate cut next month, and are pricing-in in a cumulative 55bps basis points of easing by year-end. U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud continues whilst expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in September rose after Fed Governor John Williams said ‘risks are more in balance’. Should the US10yr yield break below horizontal support at 4.183, there’s a risk that it negates intermediate wave (2)’s zig zag upside targets towards 4.762+/-. Wait a moment though – some caution is advised. A comparative look at the US2yr yield reveals May’s decline from 4.072 unfolding into an overlapping seven wave sequence, consistent with a double zig zag pattern – fib-price-ratios measure 100% equality within the two zig zag declines for ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
30th August 2025 - Gold’s advance from the August 20th low of 3311.59 has unfolded into a rather jagged pattern – it’s is a little ambiguous as it does contain some overlapping sequences - it’s either the ###beginning of a multiple extending impulse, beginning with a series of 1-2’s which is allowable basis a fractal nine/eleven/seventeen wave impulse – or it could be a finishing a seven wave double zig zag pattern into tonight’s high of 3423.18 - either way, this doesn’t detract from gold’s overall bullish outlook for the next month. This week’s progress higher for silver is consistent with a stronger advance up ahead although we’ve noticed this rally from 38.09 has unfolded into a rather ambiguous sequence to today’s high of 39.12. That could allow another retracement next week, back towards 38.09+/- again, ahead of resuming higher. Tuesday’s report noted that Crude oil had traded into short-term upside targets of 64.87+/... Read full summary in our latest report!
